COMMERNTARY 12/29/15 **RIVER LEVELS HIGH!

St Louis river level ~RISING RAPIDLY~ at +39.2 and forecast to be 43.7 by  THUR 12/31   

(Flood Stage = 30.0′   –  MAJOR Flood Stage = 40.0′)

FORECAST:         12/29     12/30     12/31      1/1         1/2        1/3        Cresting expected THUR/FRI

                                 39.4′    43.6′      43.7′    43.0′   41.3′     39.3′

Good amount of snow coverage across US wheat country should insulate against the cold. Additional rain/snow across the N half of the US will contribute to flooding of major interior rivers into next week.     In SA, Argentina has seen scattered rain as well as Central Brazil, S MGDS, Parana, and Santa Catarina.  Brazil’s dry areas should further improve into late week especially from Parana to Sao Paulo. S Brazil too should remain wet. Argentina is expecting timely rainfall warmer than normal temps the next two weeks.

CORN

UP 1

The dollar was stronger while cheap South American imports pressured the futures.  Late in the day river forecast were notched back a hair, giving  hope that STL harbor would return to normal bt next week.  A week of no loading should help strengthen basis basis short term. Talk has 100,000 MT of Argentine mixed grains and meal recently trading INTO the SE US.  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange believes yc is 69% planted, up 10 points from last week and 4 ahead of last year and still expecting a 16% decline in planted area.  Extended final bean planting dates in Brazil (due to dry soil) could reduce Safrinha corn acres. The current corn price in Argentina $10-12 per metric ton CHEAPER THAN the US.

BEANS     

UP 5

South American crop concerns subside, but year end positioning gave a boost.  N Argentina planting is still being delayed by excess moisture.  Some third of the 2 million intended soybeans and ½ million corn is yet to be planted. C Brazil dryness has deteriorated somewhat and yield impact concerns remain up in the air.

WHEAT          

UP 9

Rain and snow in the Midwest were found relatively supportive for cold weather protection in SRW areas.