COMMENTARY 7/21/14

~MARKET CHOKES FEED GRADE WHEAT~

The weekend was dry as temperatures averaged below normal across the Corn Belt.  Chance of showers Tue-Wed and then mostly dry into the 1st part of next week.  Some heat early, then an extended cool period persists.   Light rain amounts in the forecast for next week with an increasing frequency for the 1st week of August. Temps expected to turn warmer in a seasonal fashion around the 3rd of August but an extended period of high readings is not anticipated.  Some showers early in August but no more than normal.

St Louis river levels EASING at +23.2 ft today and forecast 18.2 by 7/26.

CORN                      

DOWN 7

Monday’s Export Inspections were slightly below the mid-point at 37.0 of the trade’s 33-43 range due to disappointing numbers to Mexico but huge to S Korea at 10.1.

New Crop barge freight is ratcheting higher with the continued buzz about the super-sized crop we have growing.  Weather forecast is just not threatening and one more good inch of rain will make the crop hard to hurt, that is, …….barring an early frost.  Nothing like that in the forecast at this time although the old timers say, “when you hear the first locust we are 6 weeks until frost”.  (Someone locally heard locusts around July 5th).  We’ll leave it up to you to do the math.  NOTE:  This is NOT a good excuse to continue to hold old corn into new crop into declining and inverted market.

RECORD YIELDS VERY LIKELY.  Yields COULD be as much as 5 – 7 bpa ABOVE trend line and some argue that may be conservative.  We COULD be experiencing the 4th coolest pollination  since 1980.  The next 5 – 10 days will tell the story.   Some analysts suggesting  $3.00-$3.25 December corn Futures by harvest.  Today, Dec Futures are $3.78.

Nationwide Crop Rating  remained unchanged  at 76% G/E vs 76% LW and 63% LY.  The State of IL  remained unchanged at 81% G/E vs 81% LW.  US CORN SILKING was 56% This Week, 34%% LW, 39%LY and 55% AVG.  The State of IL Silking was 82% This Week, 62% LW, 58% LY, and 70% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/28)

 

BEANS    

OLD ~ DOWN 1      NEW~ DOWN 14

Monday’s Export Inspection were 3.6, versus the trade’s expectations of 1.6 – 4.4; the usual customers were Mexico, Japan, and SE Asia.  Domestically and globally, the S&D’s are suspected bearish, unless something irreversible happens to the US crop in the next few weeks.  Crop Conditions today were expected to be unchanged…..see below.

The (6/30) USDA REPORT WAS BEARISH FOR OLD & NEW CROP BEANS.   ACRES 84.84 vs 81.49 million.  (Avg guess was 82 million)  The report added 3.3 million more to planted acres and “found” some beans as the negative residual was 23 million more than the trade had been anticipating. Stocks were .405 vs. 992Funds are still LONG (that means a large amount of selling would likely pressure the Board).

US CROP CONDITIONS improved 1% at 73 % G/E, 72% LW, and 64%LY. The State of IL was 77% G/E THIS WEEK and 76%LW.  US BLOOMING was 60% THIS WEEK, 41% LW, 243% LY, and 56% AVG.  BLOOMING for the State of IL was 69% THIS WEEK, 50% LW, 47% LY, and 55% AVG.      (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 2

Export Sales were 18.9 and surpassed expectations of 11-18 mbu range. Japan took 1.4 mbu.  Argentina is now 78% planted.  Traders remain concerned that as much as 30% of French wheat has been impacted by heavy rain & quality loss.  In the US, harvest continues to work its way North into WI, MI, & S. Ontario. Despite losing some acres this spring, overall quality seems to be pretty good so far.  Locally, Higher barge freight nearby weighs on basis values as the market continues to access the damage and costs associated with vomitoxin AND LOW TEST WEIGHTS.   BIG BASIS DROPS FRIAY – NEARLY 25 CENTS!!  Test Weights below 56.0 are becoming harder to find a market for.  Wheat mills, as well as River Terminals are being forced to reject lower quality loads for higher vomi (over 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0) and TW now below 55.0.  Higher discounts for lower Test Weights may be in our cards in the immediate near future. Vomi discounts are significant as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat. 

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.

Winter heat HARVESTED is 75% This Week, 69% LW, 74% LY, and 75% AVG.  The STATE of IL is 95% HARVESTED This Week, 90% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)