COMMENTARY **RIVER SHOULD OPEN MID NEXT WEEK

St Louis river level ~HIGH ~ at +42.2 and forecast to be 37.6 by  THUR 1/4   

Good amounts of snow coverage across US wheat country should insulate against the cold. Additional rain/snow across the N half of the US will contribute to flooding of major interior rivers into next week.     In SA, Argentina has seen scattered rain as well as Central Brazil, S MGDS, Parana, and Santa Catarina.  Brazil’s dry areas should further improve into late week especially from Parana to Sao Paulo. S Brazil too should remain wet. Argentina is expecting timely rainfall warmer than normal temps the next two weeks.

CORN

DOWN 1

Saw both sides today as the old year goes out.  Export Sales were mid range at 27.8 vs expectations of 24-31 with 26.5/week needed. Most went to the W Hemisphere, although Japan bought 5 million and Unknown was 6.0 mill bu. It could take another year but Argentina believes their corn acres will double.  The current corn price in Argentina $10-12 per metric ton CHEAPER THAN the US.  Thurs’ Export Sales are expected to be 24 – 31 mill bu with 27.3 needed per week.  The next crop report is out in TWO weeks!  Currently over half of the Ohio River shippers are unable to load due to high water.   STL harbor should return to normal by mid next week.  A week of no loading should help strengthen basis basis short term.

Bloomberg Opinion:  44% of traders are bearish, 38% are neutral

BEANS     

DOWN  5

Puny Export Sales didn’t lend any strength.   It was rather dismal at 17.6 vs expectations of 37-51 with 9.3/wk needed.  Of that total, 10.3 went to China, 12.4 to the EU,  with Unknown cancelling 6.8.   The Nov USDA Crush estimate is in a  164-168 range, with an avg 166.7, down from 170.1 in Oct.  Oil stocks are expected to be 2.01 billion pounds, up fom 1.99 last month.

Bloomberg Opinion:  OVER 60% of traders surveyed are bearish, 25% are neutral

 

WHEAT          

UNCHANGED

Export Sales were mid-range at 13.4 vs expectations of 9-17 and 9.3 needed per week.  3.8 went to Indonesia and 2.1 to Italy.

Bloomberg Opinion: 45% of traders are bullish.