COMMENTARY 7/20/18

Slightly below normal temps are in store for the next 10 days in the Central US, then warming.  Normal accums of 1 – 2” is expected in the E corn belt.

CORN

UP 4

Thoughts of more export demand is getting the market excited and on positive NAFTA comments out of Mexico saying they will start new talks July 26.  The BA Grain Exchange lowered Argentina’s old crop production to 31 MMT from 32 MMT and compares to the USDA at 33.0.  Harvest is 76% complete. Monday’s crop conditions are thought to be 1-2% lower again.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 58% TW (35% LW), Bearish 26% TW (45% LW), Neutral 16% TW (20% NW)

 

BEANS              

UP 4

Still struggling with trade concerns.  Pres Trump says he is ready to apply tariffs to all $505 bill of Chinas products.  China’s soybean meal inventories were down 10,000 tons from last week to 1.3 mill due to increased demand.  United Oilseeds reduced the EU’s rapeseed yield by 9.2% due to poor weather. (this is one of the items China claims they will get from other countries to suffice for bean meal use.)  US crop conditions are expected to be 1-2 lower again on Mon.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:    Bullish 45% TW (15% LW), Bearish 25% TW (55% LW), Neutral 30% TW (30% LW)

 

WHEAT

UP 12

Russian yields may now be down as much as 20%!! A 1-2 point drop in spring wheat ratings is expected Mon.  From the BA Exchange, Argentina’s harvest is 93% done, up from 87% last week likely to be bigger than expected at 20 MMT.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:      Bullish 55% TW (30% LW), Bearish 10% TW (25% LW), Neutral 33% TW (45% LW)