COMMENTARY 9/30/16

This upper level low is strong and cool and spinning over the E half of the Corn Belt through the weekend resulting in periodic showers for IL, IN, OH, and MI.  Another 1/2” to 1” by Sun is possible with higher amounts to the E.  Mon should be dry for a day or two allowing for some harvest and ……wheat planting.  Temps remain mild, in the 70’s-80’s.  In SA, dryness has all but stopped corn planting in Cordoba and S Santa Fe as Sep rains are down sharply from Aug for both Brazil and Argentina.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 20.8′ and forecast 21.9by 10/6.  

CORN

UP 7

Rain hindered harvest today in the Central and E Belt. National harvest is progressing and would think it SHOULD be 30+% on Mon afternoon.  Futures caught a bid after USDA released its projection of Sep 1 stocks at 1.738 bill bu, which was slightly below expectations. Industry didn’t feed as much wheat as expected by the trade.  Funds increased their net short by 24.5k contracts to -191,510.  The old adage….big crops keep getting bigger?

 BEANS     

UP 4

Sep stocks was viewed as neutral, coming in at 197 mill bu and vs 191 last year, and  3 mill below the average guess. Minor adjustments were made in the 15/16 acres, but no yield change, and they lowered last year’s production by 3 mill bu. Farm stocks were 41 mill bu vs 50 mill with no major regional differences.   Another sale of 198K MT to unknown and 118K MT to China was announced today.  A two year high for Chinese crush margins isn’t bearish.

WHEAT          

UP 3

Stocks came in slightly bearish with (all) wheat stocks at 2.527 bill bu vs and average guess at 2.438 bill, up 430 mill from last year. All wheat production was 2.310 bill bu vs 2.321 in Aug. Feeding was 271 mill, down from 286 last year. The trade may have been thinking we would be higher given the large HRW crop and stocks this summer.