COMMENTARY 9/30/15

Hurricane Joaquin brings heavy rain to the east coast Friday as well as the E 20% of SRW wheat production.  That should keep the Central Corn Belt dry and cool next week, aiding in harvest and wheat planting.  Southern Brazil should stay relatively wet, while areas to the N stay dry.

St Louis river level DROPPING at +8.2 and forecast  to be 5.6 by  10/4  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

CORN

DOWN 1

Saw some strength ahead of the report, but turned out to be a non-event.  Today’s Sep 1 corn stocks showed 1.731 bbu, near the trade avg guess of 1.739 (in a range of 1.647-1.850 and vs 2014’s 1.232 bbu figure. The State of IL accounted for 40% of this year’s near 500 mbu nationwide inventory increase!   Weekly Ethanol Production output rose 5 kbpd to 943, 7% more than the 2014 figure of 881 K.  Nation-wide inventories declined 118 K to 18.78 mill. and are now approx 50 K below last year’s total.  Cordonnier maintains his corn yield at 165.0 vs the USDA’s at 167.5.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to range between 28 – 35 mill bu.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US HARVESTED:   18% TW,  10 % LW, 11% LY, and23% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED:  30% TW, 13% LW, 13% LY, and 34% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 7

Nov futures pushed to new September highs early in the trading session as an initial bullish response to the revised 2014 production/stocks report but unable to hold all of the gains into the close.  The  Sep 1 bean stocks were a surprise at 191 vs the avg trade guess at 205 in a range of 165-250 with the 2014 down at 92.  Also of surprise, the USDA reduced the 2014 crop by 42 million, now estimated at 3.927 bbu. The yield too was lowered 3/10’s to 47.5 and harvested acres got trimmed by 470K acres.  Cordonnier has increased his opinion of the US yield ½ bpa to 46.5 vs the USDA at 47.1.  From what we are hearing from early yields, these estimates mayneed to get BIGGER!  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to range between 48 – 62 mill bu.

In South America, Celeres believes Brazil producers are 26% sold, vs 10% LY and 21% avg.  Others are estimating that they are MORE sold with IMEA putting Mato Grosso farmers at 40% vs 11% LY, and private consultant Cerealpar with his est at 45-50% sold.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 62% G/E  and 63% LW  72% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 55% G/E, 54% G/E LW ~ Up 1

US LEAF DROPPING:  74% TW, 56 %LW, 66% LY, and 70% AVG.  The State of IL LEAF DROPPING: 75 % TW, 54 %LW, 65% LY, and 69% AVG.

US CROP HARVESTED:  21% TW, 7 %LW, 9% LY, and 16% AVG.  The State of IL CROP HARVESTED: 24 % TW, 3 %LW, 6% LY, and 12% AVG.

                                   

WHEAT          

UP 9    

Today’s Stocks and Production numbers were supportive.  The ALL Wheat Production came in at 2.052, a supportive number compared to the trade’s guess at 2.133 bbu in a range of 2.105-2.160 vs the USDA’s last est of 2.136.  The Sep 1 stocks were reported at 2.089 bbu, 60 million below the trade in a range of 1.987-2.285, with LY at 1.907.  The EU Commission raised their ALL Wheat Production est from 140.7 MMT in August to 144.6 this month.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to range between 9 – 17 mill bu. 

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED: 31% G/E , 19 % LW,  40% LY, and 35% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  4 % TW, 3%  LW, 2% LY, and 6% Avg