COMMENTARY 9/29/17

No rain in sight to help raise the river level!!

CORN

UP 3

Top of the spotlight is again soaring barge freight and low water.  Couple that with today being the last day to price old crop dp was a toxic combination.  Lots of selling is hard on the demand, especially when freight IS in demand.  Today’s USDA stocks report gave a little nudge with ending stocks coming in at 2.295 BILL bu which was 50 mill LESS than the avg guestimate. No rain in the forecast is causing basis values to collapse, causing huge carry’s and big storage costs.  Due to this giant carry phenomenon, it is now more important than ever to get creative and HOLD unsold BU’S OFF THE MARKET by any  means possible.

 

BEANS

UP 9

Today’s stocks report was supportive as the USDA found 301 mill bu compared to an avg guess of 339.  With the Aug market having been inverted nearby and all of the recent foreign sales, the bean pipeline is quite unclogged and demanding beans despite the torture that freight is under.  The USDA also reduced acres by 40k to 82.7 and reduced the yield by 0.1 to 52.0 bpa. Yields so far are spectacular.  Due to freight issues, HOLD unsold BU’S OFF THE MARKET by any  means possible, but with yields the way they are, $9.00 beans still nets 650/acre!  That’s GREAT money! – especially if you need some ca$h!

 

 WHEAT

DOWN 7

A lower note for the week but not bad for the surprises that were in store.  The report had the 17′ ALL classes crop at 1.741 BILL bu.  That was 17 mill more than expected! Lower feed and residual usage from June-Aug was the culprit. Spring wheat Prod was 416 mill and folks were expecting the Hard wheat crop to shrink but grew to 750 mill compared to the avg guess of 385 and Aug’s 402. That is even with abandoned acres being the highest since 2002!  SRW Prod was 292 mill.  US stocks were 2.253 BILL bu, some 50 mill HIGHER than the avg guess.  On the barge freight issues, even wheat is being pelted by higher freight nearby.  Basis has dropped to -50 the Dec….that’s a 50 cent change from a couple weeks ago.