COMMENTARY 9/29/16

Cool and showery weather for the E Corn Belt E IL, IN, MI, and OH) but mainly dry and mild everywhere else through the weekend.  Huh!!  That didn’t last long did it??  Periodic showers for the E Corn Belt through the weekend, with ½”- 1” accum possible for E IL to the East with highest accums for OH and MI.  The W Corn Belt stays dry through Mon. Next week we should see some rain for the N Plains early, then working its way E into the Corn Belt.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 20.2′ and forecast 22.2by 10/4.  

CORN

STEADY

 The W  Belt should see good harvest activity but Export Sales were disappointing at 22.6 mill bu vs expectations of 30-37 and 29.5 per week needed. Very little business from the Far East but decent numbers of 11.3 to Mexico and 9.1 to Colombia.  Tomorrow’s Sep 1 Stock Reportis expected to be a 1.754 bill bu in a 1.665 – 1.862 range and vs the last USDA est at 1.731.  The report will be out at 10 am.

LAST MONDAY’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 15% THIS WEEK,  9 % LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 19% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  24% THIS WEEK,  9 % LAST WEEK,  25% LAST YEAR, and 25 % AVG

US CONDITIONS:  74% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  83% G/E THIS WEEK, 85% LAST WEEK

US DENT: 97% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK, 96% LAST YEAR, and 96% AVG

IL DENT:  98% THIS WEEK,  95 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and 98 % AVG

US MATURE: 73% THIS WEEK,  53 % LAST WEEK, 66% LAST YEAR, and 64% AVG

IL MATURE:  88% THIS WEEK,  63 % LAST WEEK,  86% LAST YEAR, and 78 % AVG

 BEANS     

UP 4

Another 120 K MT sale to China for delivery in 16/17, GREAT Export Sales, and lower world stocks on the horizon? Thursday’s Export Sales were stupendous at 62.2 mill bu vs expectations of 40 – 48 mill.  China bought 30.6 and Unknown bought 19.4 with just 20.9 per week still needed.  Meal and oil sales were not bad.  Tomorrow’s Sep 1 Stocks report is thought to show 201 mill bu in a 180-256 range and compares to the last USDA est at 191 mill bu.  IGC raised their World crop estimate 4 MMT to 329 vs 315 last year, but revised their endings stocks est from being 1 MMT higher (32 mill), to DOWN 2 (29 mill).

LAST Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 10% THIS WEEK,  4 % LAST WEEK, 17% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  6% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK,  18% LAST YEAR, and 9 % AVG

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   73% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 80% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US DROPPING LEAVES: 68% THIS WEEK,  46 % LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR and 64% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES:  62 %  THIS WEEK, 31 % LAST WEEK, 69 % LAST YEAR, and 62 % AVG

WHEAT          

DOWN 4

Export Sales were very solid at 21.0 vs expectations of 15 – 22 mill bu and only 12.1 per week needed.  Some 5.3 went to the EU and 5.3 to Morocco.  Tomorrow’s all wheat Production at 2.323 bill vs the last USDA at 2.321.  So far, Russian yields look to be some 9% HIGHER than last year.  Ukraine, on the other hand, wheat plantings are down 19% from last year due to soggy weather.

 LAST Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  30% THIS WEEK, 17 % LAST WEEK, 28% LAST YEAR, and 30% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  1% THIS WEEK, na % LAST WEEK, 4% LAST YEAR, and 4% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  8% THIS WEEK, na% LAST WEEK, 6% LAST YEAR, and 8% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  na% THIS WEEK, na% LAST WEEK, na% LAST YEAR, and 1% AVG