COMMENTARY 9/29/15

A cooler pattern begins shortly and last a week, inducing areas of frost at times in the North, then again turning warmer which COULD suggest that  strong El Niño could be influencing US weather .  With the cool, there is an increased chance of spotting showers aiding parts of the HRW wheat and SRW wheat belts.  This does NOT necessarily mean the beginning of a wet pattern.

In Brazil, the rainy season is late starting for much of Goias and Mato Grosso.  This could limit early bean planting.  In Argentina, a cool pattern should develop over the next week to 10 days with rain limited to the wheat areas in the South West.   A cool pattern dominate the central U.S. over the next week, leading to areas of frost at times.  2ndly, a warmer pattern returns next week, suggesting .

St Louis river level LOW AND STEADY at +6.3 and forecast  to be 6.7 by  10/3  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

CORN

UP 2

Gathered support from beans and waiting for tomorrows September 1 stocks report.  The trade average at 1.739 in a range of 1.647-1.850 and vs 2014’s 1.232 bbu figure.  Yesterday’s % harvested was 18% complete, trailing the estimate by 3 points and 5 below the 5-year average.  Locally, it seems as though some are making significant progress on their corn harvest at approx 50% complete. Crop Ratings held steady at 68%, as expected.  South Africa yellow corn futures hit $5.49 this morning, the highest level for the most active contract since Aug 1996.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 68% G/E , 68% LW  74% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 55% G/E 54% LW

US DENT:   97% TW,  94 % LW, 95% LY, and 97% AVG.  The State of IL DENT:  100% TW, 100% LW, 99% LY, and 99% AVG

US MATURE:   71% TW,  53 % LW, 57% LY, and 72% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE:  89% TW, 78% LW, 77% LY, and 84% AVG

US HARVESTED:   18% TW,  10 % LW, 11% LY, and23% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED:  30% TW, 13% LW, 13% LY, and 34% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 7

Spotty showers are slowing down harvest.  Tomorrow’s September 1 stocks avg trade guess is at 205 in a range of 165-250 with 2014 at 92.  The Bloomberg Survey has August crush at 142.2 with July at 152.3 and Oil stocks at  1.75 for Aug and 1.92 for July.  Yesterday’s Harvest progress was as expected at 21%, 5 ahead of average and 3 above the trade estimate.  Ratings however, slipped 1 to 62% with the trade expecting no change.  Better get the cart ready when your beans get ready!

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 62% G/E  and 63% LW  72% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 55% G/E, 54% G/E LW ~ Up 1

US LEAF DROPPING:  74% TW, 56 %LW, 66% LY, and 70% AVG.  The State of IL LEAF DROPPING: 75 % TW, 54 %LW, 65% LY, and 69% AVG.

US CROP HARVESTED:  21% TW, 7 %LW, 9% LY, and 16% AVG.  The State of IL CROP HARVESTED: 24 % TW, 3 %LW, 6% LY, and 12% AVG.

                                   

WHEAT          

DOWN 2    

Supported by the slow pace of planting.  The Trade is expecting tomorrows All wheat production at 2.133 bbu in a range of 2.105-2.160.  The last USDA estimate was 2.136.  Stocks are estimated at 2.149 bbu in a range of 1.987-2.285.  Last year was 1.907.  Winter wheat planting is 31% complete, 4 points below expectations and behind last year by 9.  Less rainfall than earlier forecast is expected for Argentina though it would improve soil moisture.  More rain is still needed in some of the Western growing area.  Brazil is saturated in the Central and East should receive additional this week, heightening concerns about quality.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED: 31% G/E , 19 % LW,  40% LY, and 35% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  4 % TW, 3%  LW, 2% LY, and 6% Avg