COMMENTARY 9/28/17

Warm/dry for the Central US through at least Sun and no real rain in sight. In SA, showers are in store for the NE half of Argentina’, with totals over an 1” in freshly planted sunflower regions.  Heavy rains are forecast for Brazil and Paraguay over the weekend followed by a week of drying.

CORN

DOWN 2

Low water, higher freight, and favorable weather and the weakness in beans, export sales were disappointing, and more uncertainty with ethanol compliance.  With no rain in the forecast, there is likely to be more grief still yet to be had.Farmers still not seeming too eager to get out there and get after it. There was a new sales announcement of 233K MT to unknown for 17/18 deliv.  Thursday’s Export Sales were puny at 12.6 vs expectations of 20 – 30mill bu.  Japan and the W Hemisphere were the chief buyers but overall, year to date sales are down nearly 37% at 447 mill from 730 last year! – Sales to Asia are lower now than they were back in 88.  Fumonisin problems seem to be gaining momentum for the TX feedlots. Report out tomorrow at 11AM…..right before you need to have all that free dp priced prior to 1:15! HOLD  UNSOLD BU’S OFF THE MARKET by any (most) means possible.

 

BEANS

 

DOWN 6

Great bean cutting weather!  Weaker despite SPECTACULAR Export Sales that blew it right out of the park!! Export Sales were a STAGGERING 109.6mill bu!! – vs expectations of 66 -81 mill!  That’s hot!  This demand is helping keep cif values at the Gulf supported, helping to offset the higher freight values from low water.  National yields overall look like 49.5 – 50 bpa, the second best crop ever, but less than last year’s 52 bpa.  Now these numbers are pale in comparison to what we’re seeing locally… mid 70’s and up.  China is on holiday next week.

 

WHEAT

 

DOWN 6

Export Sales were 16 mbu vs expectations of 9 – 17 mill but that didn’t stop the Funds from selling off from yesterday’s rally. The weekly drought summary says that 20% of the winter wheat production is in a drought and compares to 24% last week. The HRW belt looks ideal for planting conditions with heavy widespread rain. Fall insurance pricing in addition to the recent moisture should incent HRW producers to increase acreage, but we seem to be moving away from wheat rotations so acreage could decline this year. E Australia is forecast to see some moisture next week, though some think their crop may be under 20 MMT.