COMMENTARY 9/28/16

Cool and showery weather for the E Corn Belt E IL, IN, MI, and OH) but mainly dry and mild everywhere else through the weekend.  Dry weather continues for the Delta as well.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 17.5′ and forecast 21.3by 10/5.  

CORN

DOWN 3

Weaker with excellent yields, perfect weather, and waiting on Fri’s Stocks Report.  Some 1.754 bill bu is the expected stocks number in a 1.665 -1.862 range.  Mexico bought 1.577 MMT of US corn today.  Crop Progress history indicates that 8% of our crop usually gets harvested from 9/25-10/2.  If this holds true this year, we’d be approx. 23% complete.  We’ll see!

MONDAY’s CROP PROGRESS:

US HARVESTED: 15% THIS WEEK,  9 % LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 19% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  24% THIS WEEK,  9 % LAST WEEK,  25% LAST YEAR, and 25 % AVG

US CONDITIONS:  74% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  83% G/E THIS WEEK, 85% LAST WEEK

US DENT: 97% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK, 96% LAST YEAR, and 96% AVG

IL DENT:  98% THIS WEEK,  95 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and 98 % AVG

US MATURE: 73% THIS WEEK,  53 % LAST WEEK, 66% LAST YEAR, and 64% AVG

IL MATURE:  88% THIS WEEK,  63 % LAST WEEK,  86% LAST YEAR, and 78 % AVG

 BEANS     

DOWN 7

Weaker!!  Our big harvest has offset our export sales announcements! Yet another Export announcement had Unknown destinations buying some 211k MT for delivery in 16/17.  There was also a sale of 133k  MT to China for 16/17 delivery as well.  Fri’s Grain Stock report is expected to show our stocks at 0.200 bill bu in a 0.158 – 0.256 range.  Similar to yc, history says we usually harvest 14% of our ysb crop from 9/25 – 10/2, which would put us some 24% complete just shortly.

Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 10% THIS WEEK,  4 % LAST WEEK, 17% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  6% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK,  18% LAST YEAR, and 9 % AVG

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   73% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 80% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US DROPPING LEAVES: 68% THIS WEEK,  46 % LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR and 64% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES:  62 %  THIS WEEK, 31 % LAST WEEK, 69 % LAST YEAR, and 62 % AVG

WHEAT          

UNCHANGED

Even quieter. Wet weather in the E Midwest is not helping get the winter wheat sown although NEXT week is supposed to be drier. E Australia is too wet.  Argentina is beginning to dry.  Fri’s Stocks report is expected to show Sep 1 stocks at 2.438 bill bu in a 2.175 – 2.650 range.

 Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  30% THIS WEEK, 17 % LAST WEEK, 28% LAST YEAR, and 30% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  1% THIS WEEK, na % LAST WEEK, 4% LAST YEAR, and 4% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  8% THIS WEEK, na% LAST WEEK, 6% LAST YEAR, and 8% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  na% THIS WEEK, na% LAST WEEK, na% LAST YEAR, and 1% AVG