COMMENTARY 9/28/15

Need grain market advice?  Check out Proverbs 11:26.  The recent unseasonable warmth should break the next few days as below-normal temps ease in.  This new pattern will bring a chance of rain to the Plains later this week and likely next week, improving soil moisture for HRW wheat development.  Sep could end up ranking as #1 warmest since 1895 which if true, could beat the old record set in 1931.  As temps turn much cooler, frosts possible in the Northern  Belt as early as Friday.  Relax! Killing freezes are unlikely (for a while).

In South America, despite a few storms in Goias and Mato Grosso today/tomorrow, hot and dry conditions should keep bean planters on the sidelines for another 1-2 weeks.

St Louis river level LOW AND STEADY at +6.8 and forecast  to be 6.9 by  10/2  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

CORN

DOWN 2 

Lots of combines are in the home stretch of harvest in Central and Southern IL and some squaring up prior to Wed’s USDA Report.  Yield variability is high and moisture contents are much lower. Today’s Export Inspections were 31.9 vs expectations of 30 -35 mill bu.  Commercial ownership is still light compared to normal given the harvest progress nationally  at 18% (USDA), 10% LW and 23% 5 yr avg.  The USDA seems light pegging IL at 30% up from 13% LW.  Harvest was expected to be 21% this afternoon, 10 points ahead of last year and 2 points behind the average.  See below for actuals.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 68% G/E , 68% LW  74% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 55% G/E 54% LW

US DENT:   97% TW,  94 % LW, 95% LY, and 97% AVG.  The State of IL DENT:  100% TW, 100% LW, 99% LY, and 99% AVG

US MATURE:   71% TW,  53 % LW, 57% LY, and 72% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE:  89% TW, 78% LW, 77% LY, and 84% AVG

US HARVESTED:   18% TW,  10 % LW, 11% LY, and23% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED:  30% TW, 13% LW, 13% LY, and 34% AVG

 

BEANS     

DOWN 13

The market wasn’t impressed by today’s sales announcement (1 MMT sale to China for 16/17 delivery and a 249 K sale to Unknown for shipment in 15/16). Early yield reports…..SWEET MARIE!!  60-80 bpa??!!  S America still have lots of  beans to export.  Export Inspections were 19.5 mill vs 20 -33 mill bu expected.  China only took 6.1 this week while Mexico was most impressive at 5.2 million!

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 62% G/E  and 63% LW  72% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 55% G/E, 54% G/E LW ~ Up 1

US LEAF DROPPING:  74% TW, 56 %LW, 66% LY, and 70% AVG.  The State of IL LEAF DROPPING: 75 % TW, 54 %LW, 65% LY, and 69% AVG.

US CROP HARVESTED:  21% TW, 7 %LW, 9% LY, and 16% AVG.  The State of IL CROP HARVESTED: 24 % TW, 3 %LW, 6% LY, and 12% AVG.

                                   

WHEAT          

DOWN 2    

Maybe Russia isn’t as dry as we thought?  Chinese economic fears contributed to weakness today with declines in non-ag slots as well as grains. Glencore struggling too is being viewed as a barometer of world trade. Growing concerns in Australia (mid-growing season) and Russia (planting season for winter wheat) are decreasing ideas of world wheat production.  Export inspections of 23.9 exceeded expectations of 13 – 20 mill bu. and above the 17.9mbu needed to reach USDA’s annual figure.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED: 31% G/E , 19 % LW,  40% LY, and 35% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  4 % TW, 3%  LW, 2% LY, and 6% Avg