COMMENTARY 9/27/17

Rain for the HRW in the SW Plains into tomorrow while most of the Central US stays dry Sun.  In SA, showers are in store for the NE half of Argentina’, with totals over an 1” in freshly planted sunflower regions.  Brazil and Paraguay are warm/dry, except for chilly portions of S Arg wheat, where highs have been in the 40/50’s.  Heavy showers are expected for Brazil and Paraguay over the weekend followed by a week of drying.

CORN

UP 1

Low water and higher freight are still the spotlight. We did have a bigger than expected drop in eth production and yields still vary BUT BETTER THAN EXPECTEDThat also exacerbates the freight issues too, by the way! Drafts are now down to 10′ which is approx. a 23% drop in the bu’s that one barge can hold.  –> and THAT makes freight cost go up.  Try putting 23% less bu’s in your truck/wagon and try to get something accomplished.  You are going to need MORE TRUCKS.   HOLD  UNSOLD BU’S OFF THE MARKET by any (most) means possible. Will have this afternoon’s crop progress tomorrow due to technology issues.

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC DENT:   93%TW,  86% LW, 96% LY, and 95% AVG

IL YC DENT:   94% TW, 89% LW, 98% LY, and 98% AVG

US YC MATURE:   51%TW,  34% LW, 70% LY, and 64% AVG

IL YC MATURE:   57% TW, 39% LW, 84% LY, and 77% AVG

US HARVESTED:  11% TW,  7 % LW, 14% LY , and 17% AVG

IL HARVESTED: 11% TW,  5 % LW, 22% LY , and 24% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  61% G/E,  61% LW, and 74% LY 

IL CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 52% LW

BEANS

UP 1

Little fresh news and great harvest weather, but there WAS a 4.9 mill bu  sale announced this am to China.  The market looks to be trying to sort out the effects of yest’s EPA announcement regarding biodiesel.  the EPA had issued a “Notice of Data Availability” for public comment on potential for reductions to 2018 biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel volumes under the RFS. This had put pressure on bean oil fut as it was viewed as back-peddling by the Administration on the biofuels mandate.

 

Crop Progress:

US YSB DROPPING LEAVES:   63%TW,  41% LW,  65% LY, and 63% AVG

IL YSB DROPPING LEAVES:    57% TW,  32% LW, 58% LY, and 58% AVG

US HARVESTED:  10% TW,  4 % LW, 9% LY , and 12% AVG

IL HARVESTED: 9% TW,  1 % LW,  5 % LY , and 7% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  60% G/E,  59% LW, and 73% LY  

IL CONDITIONS: 56% G/E, 53% LW a 3% INCREASE!

WHEAT

UP 5

Quiet. 

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:    24% TW, 13 % LW, 28%LY, and 28%AVG