COMMENTARY 9/27/16

Cool and showery weather for the E Corn Belt but mainly dry and mild everywhere else through the weekend  Dry weather continues for the Delta as well.  In SA, Argentina gets erratic rains for the next two weeks.  Brazil, from Paraguay to S Minas Gerais is expecting 1/2″ to 2″ of accum

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 18.2′ and forecast 20.4by 10/3.  

CORN

UP 3

Harvest progress is ramping up for the Corn Belt and the forecast is clear as far out as we can see.   N of I-80 corn is still 20% moisture and dropping.  Fri, the USDA will release its Sept stocks report. We are expecting a 1.754 bill bu stocks number, with a range of 1.665 to 1.862. Ethanol export demand looks promising for some months caused by high sugar prices incenting Brazilian sugar caners to crush to sugar into ethanol. One counter is that plants continue to improve efficiencies.

Yesterday’s

US HARVESTED: 15% THIS WEEK,  9 % LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 19% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  24% THIS WEEK,  9 % LAST WEEK,  25% LAST YEAR, and 25 % AVG

US CONDITIONS:  74% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  83% G/E THIS WEEK, 85% LAST WEEK

US DENT: 97% THIS WEEK,  93 % LAST WEEK, 96% LAST YEAR, and 96% AVG

IL DENT:  98% THIS WEEK,  95 % LAST WEEK,  100% LAST YEAR, and 98 % AVG

US MATURE: 73% THIS WEEK,  53 % LAST WEEK, 66% LAST YEAR, and 64% AVG

IL MATURE:  88% THIS WEEK,  63 % LAST WEEK,  86% LAST YEAR, and 78 % AVG

 BEANS     

UP 7

Still waiting on harvest to start.  The USDA announced a sale of 120,000 MT to China this morning.

Yesterday’s

US HARVESTED: 10% THIS WEEK,  4 % LAST WEEK, 17% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  6% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK,  18% LAST YEAR, and 9 % AVG

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   73% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 80% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US DROPPING LEAVES: 68% THIS WEEK,  46 % LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR and 64% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES:  62 %  THIS WEEK, 31 % LAST WEEK, 69 % LAST YEAR, and 62 % AVG

WHEAT          

UP 8

Quiet.

 Yesterday’s

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  30% THIS WEEK, 17 % LAST WEEK, 28% LAST YEAR, and 30% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  1% THIS WEEK, na % LAST WEEK, 4% LAST YEAR, and 4% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  8% THIS WEEK, na% LAST WEEK, 6% LAST YEAR, and 8% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT EMEREGED:  na% THIS WEEK, na% LAST WEEK, na% LAST YEAR, and 1% AVG