COMMENTARY 9/26/17

CORN

DOWN 2

Barge freight firmed again today, but cif managed to take out some of the sting, with nearby values actually improving some. Low water continues to be a problem for logistics and the upper IL River is back open again after being closed yesterday so rock pinnacles could be removed.  Drafts are now down to 10′ which is approx. a 23% drop in the bu’s that one barge can hold.  –> and THAT makes freight cost go up. (not conspiracy theory to get farmer to price his free dp bushels).  CHECK OUT YEST’S CROP PROGRESS BELOW. Yields continue to be 50-80 bpa BETTER than expected even in our dry regions!  GOOD ADVICE:  HOLD  UNSOLD BU’S OFF THE MARKET by any (most) means possible. Will have this afternoon’s crop progress tomorrow due to technology issues.

 Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC DENT:   93%TW,  86% LW, 96% LY, and 95% AVG

IL YC DENT:   94% TW, 89% LW, 98% LY, and 98% AVG

US YC MATURE:   51%TW,  34% LW, 70% LY, and 64% AVG

IL YC MATURE:   57% TW, 39% LW, 84% LY, and 77% AVG

US HARVESTED:  11% TW,  7 % LW, 14% LY , and 17% AVG

IL HARVESTED: 11% TW,  5 % LW, 22% LY , and 24% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  61% G/E,  61% LW, and 74% LY 

IL CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 52% LW

BEANS

DOWN 8

Weaker as harvest weather is still favorable.  The spec funds are long and heading into the end of a quarter.  Adding to length is not something they do at with yields ABOVE expectations and weather being SO favorable for quick harvest. Harvest yields are better here with more yields in the mid 70’s and some in the 80’s!

Crop Progress:

US YSB DROPPING LEAVES:   63%TW,  41% LW,  65% LY, and 63% AVG

IL YSB DROPPING LEAVES:    57% TW,  32% LW, 58% LY, and 58% AVG

US HARVESTED:  10% TW,  4 % LW, 9% LY , and 12% AVG

IL HARVESTED: 9% TW,  1 % LW,  5 % LY , and 7% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  60% G/E,  59% LW, and 73% LY  

IL CONDITIONS: 56% G/E, 53% LW a 3% INCREASE!

WHEAT

UNCHANGED

Quiet. 

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:    24% TW, 13 % LW, 28%LY, and 28%AVG