COMMENTARY 9/24/15

Warmer than normal for the next two weeks which should result in one of the 10 warmest Septembers since 1895 for The Belt.  The Plains and W Corn Belt should see some showers tomorrow, but it IS significant that the Central US is drier than normal, which leaves some HRW and SRW wheat areas drier than one might like.  In South America, the dry season looks to be about done and in Brazil should allow early planting to start.

St Louis river level DROPPING at +9.3 and forecast  to be 8.1 by  9/29  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

CORN

DOWN 2 

Yields appear to be perking up somewhat.  Thursday’s Export Sales were disappointing at 16.8 vs expectations of 22 – 30 mill bu.  This is primarily due to the LACK of Far East buying, under-scoring the US’s lack of competitiveness in the world corn market.  Mexico and Columbia were the big buyers.

 

BEANS     

UP 4

SPECTACULAR Export Sales today!!  Another USDA Daily Sales Announcement of 313 K MT (11.5 mbu) of 15/16 beans sold to Unknown!  Export Sales were ABOVE EXPECTATIONS at 48.4 mill bu vs 37 – 44 expected for the week!  (That’s GREAT, BUT pales in comparison to LY’s same week total of 94.3 mbu.)  China bought 28, unknown bought 11, and with 3 million went to the Netherlands.   Also big today was a China has vowed to book another 3-5 MMT of US YSB and there are also rumors that they MAY agree to buy an additional 10 MMT spread out over two years.  Chinese foodies demand has sources expecting higher protein diets to rapidly outpace GDP growth.  WILL be interesting times to come!

US HARVESTED:  7% TW, na %LW, 3% LY, and 7% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED: 3% TW, na %LW, na % LY, and 4% AVG.

                                  

WHEAT          

DOWN 10   

There are some problem areas but still very ample world supplies.  Export Sales were light at 16.8 with the trade expecting 22-30 and 29.3/week needed.  The big buyers were the Philippines at 4.2, Japan 3.5, and China at 2.2.   The Russian government commission is approving changes to their wheat export tax; and should add 10-20% to producer returns.  France’s exports from the Port of Rouen fell 33% to a 5 wk low of 3.7 mbu, mostly due to a decline in shipments to Algeria.  The Bloomberg Survey has All US Wheat production up 2.136 bbu, (the same as the USDA’s last estimate).

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED: 19% G/E , 9 % LW,  23% LY, and 20% Avg.    STATE OF IL WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  3 % G/E, na %  LW, 1% LY, and 2% Avg