COMMENTARY 9/23/16

Talk about a frog strangler!!  Heavy rains N half of IA, WI, and MN – and spots received up to 7″ of accum and some areas received as much as 13″ last week!  Next week is supposed to be wet for that same area again.  Locally, our unusual warm period ends Mon, then a couple days of cool, then mild as we shell our way into Oct.  In SA, rains slow planting in Argentina and S Brazil.

St Louis river level EASING ~ at 20.7′ and forecast 18.2by 9/28.  

CORN

STEADY

Good yields super dry down!  Harvest pressure (and some anticipation thereof) is weighing on CIF values.  The heavy rains overnight in IA are negatively impacting the rail roads as Cedar Rapids is closed now until next Wed. The market will closely watch movement over the next few weeks to get better direction on basis and spreads. Early talk was focused on the Chinese DDG anti-dumping investigation and potential duties that could be imposed on imports. There is 33.8% tax on the import price. The market was anticipating anywhere from 30-60% as the outcome. There could be an additional 5-10% tax added as well. This was viewed by most as a positive for DDG exports, which were lower last week due to the larger than life bean crop and competition from meal.  In SA, Argentina yc plantings is projected to expand 25% to 4.5 million hectares, up from 3.6 million last year.  Look forward to Monday’s Crop Progress in the afternoon!

LAST Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 9% THIS WEEK,  5 % LAST WEEK, 9% LAST YEAR, and 12% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  9% THIS WEEK,  3 % LAST WEEK,  11% LAST YEAR, and 14 % AVG

US CONDITIONS:  74% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  85% G/E THIS WEEK, 85% LAST WEEK

US DENT: 93% THIS WEEK,  87 % LAST WEEK, 92% LAST YEAR, and 91% AVG

IL DENT:  91% THIS WEEK,  83 % LAST WEEK,  93% LAST YEAR, and 89 % AVG

US MATURE: 53% THIS WEEK,  33 % LAST WEEK, 48% LAST YEAR, and 48% AVG

IL MATURE:  63% THIS WEEK,  42 % LAST WEEK,  73% LAST YEAR, and 62 % AVG

 

BEANS     

DOWN 21

Ouch! – and it’s not even full blown harvest yet!  Export bids broke hard, quick-ship premiums eroded, and processors backed basis off aggressively.  Some facilities dropped 40-50 cents from yesterday in the W Corn Belt. Bids were weaker in the ECB bids too, but not to the same extent. The heavy rain in the NW belt was ignored though they didn’t likely cause significant production losses.   Keep an eye on this though….especially if rains continue through the weekend.

LAST Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 4% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK, 6% LAST YEAR, and 5% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  na% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK,  2% LAST YEAR, and 2 % AVG

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   73% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 80% G/E THIS WEEK, 79% LAST WEEK

US DROPPING LEAVES: 46% THIS WEEK,  26 % LAST WEEK, 50% LAST YEAR and 43% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES:  31 %  THIS WEEK, 14 % LAST WEEK, 48 % LAST YEAR, and 37 % AVG

 

WHEAT          

STEADY

Quiet.

 LAST Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  98 % THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 93% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  17% THIS WEEK, 6 % LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 16% AVG