COMMENTARY 9/22/16

Rain for areas of IA, MN, and WI tomorrow, while hot/dry continues for the SE.  Widespread accum of 1-2″ for thW half of the Corn Belt and E Plains.  Next week forward looks dry for everyone.  This is GREAT corn drying weather!  Be safe while you’re getting it!!

St Louis river level EASING ~ at 21.1′ and forecast 18.9by 9/27.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 3

Active harvest across the Central Midwest is finally leaning on the market.  Export Sales were 36.3 vs expectations of 28-35 mill bu!  Great weather and great yields are being found in areas now done with the early planted yc.  Will be interesting what the % harvested looks like come Monday afternoon with smooth sailing at least until then!

LAST Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 9% THIS WEEK,  5 % LAST WEEK, 9% LAST YEAR, and 12% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  9% THIS WEEK,  3 % LAST WEEK,  11% LAST YEAR, and 14 % AVG

US CONDITIONS:  74% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  85% G/E THIS WEEK, 85% LAST WEEK

US DENT: 93% THIS WEEK,  87 % LAST WEEK, 92% LAST YEAR, and 91% AVG

IL DENT:  91% THIS WEEK,  83 % LAST WEEK,  93% LAST YEAR, and 89 % AVG

US MATURE: 53% THIS WEEK,  33 % LAST WEEK, 48% LAST YEAR, and 48% AVG

IL MATURE:  63% THIS WEEK,  42 % LAST WEEK,  73% LAST YEAR, and 62 % AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 1

Choppy with reports of RECORD SETTING, exceptional yields offset by big export sales announcements.  Several export sales 1)  151 K SB to Unknown 2) 120 K sold to China 3) 120 of optional origin to China.  But then, Thursday’s weekly was 32.2 mbu, slightly below the trade range of 33-44 mill bu.   Still two weeks from constructive harvest for us!

LAST Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 4% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK, 6% LAST YEAR, and 5% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  na% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK,  2% LAST YEAR, and 2 % AVG

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   73% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 80% G/E THIS WEEK, 79% LAST WEEK

US DROPPING LEAVES: 46% THIS WEEK,  26 % LAST WEEK, 50% LAST YEAR and 43% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES:  31 %  THIS WEEK, 14 % LAST WEEK, 48 % LAST YEAR, and 37 % AVG

WHEAT          

DOWN 2

Mixed.  Export Sales were great at 20.6 vs expectations of  11-18 mill bu!

 LAST Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  98 % THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 93% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  17% THIS WEEK, 6 % LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 16% AVG