COMMENTARY 9/21/16

There’s a little something here for everyone!  The latest forecast shows less chances for rain for W IA, but the heavier accum may slide further S than previously thought with accums of 1 – 3″ possible for S MN and N IA, N IL, and S WI.  Heavy rain is possible for the Plains and NW third of the Corn Belt for next week, while hot/dry weather will speed harvest to the S and E.

St Louis river level EASING ~ at 20.1′ and forecast 19.2by 9/26.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 1

Decent weather once again and yields still seem to the high side for many areas.  The market is still waiting for harvest to really get rolling as is slightly behind.  The China State Administration of Grain is expecting a good harvest this fall.  Aug imports were unchanged from last month at 30 K.  Exports increased 5 x to 322 K MT.  Thursday’s Export Sales are thought to range between 28 -35 mill bu with 30.1 mill needed per week.  Dec futures, closed at 3.40 two days in a row now.  One Private lowered their est some 20 cents and expects the Dec 17 to avg around 3.80.  That’s right where Dec 17 is today!

Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 9% THIS WEEK,  5 % LAST WEEK, 9% LAST YEAR, and 12% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  9% THIS WEEK,  3 % LAST WEEK,  11% LAST YEAR, and 14 % AVG

US CONDITIONS:  74% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  85% G/E THIS WEEK, 85% LAST WEEK

US DENT: 93% THIS WEEK,  87 % LAST WEEK, 92% LAST YEAR, and 91% AVG

IL DENT:  91% THIS WEEK,  83 % LAST WEEK,  93% LAST YEAR, and 89 % AVG

US MATURE: 53% THIS WEEK,  33 % LAST WEEK, 48% LAST YEAR, and 48% AVG

IL MATURE:  63% THIS WEEK,  42 % LAST WEEK,  73% LAST YEAR, and 62 % AVG

 

BEANS     

DOWN 14

The market ignored good sales, harvest weather is good, and yield ideas are growing.  The US sold 126 K to unknown, 120K to China, and 118 K to Taiwan.  No fund buying like we saw yesterday though. oil World raised their 16/17 global Production est a half percent to 331.1 MMT, up 5.7% from last year with the US crop seen at 4.2 bill bu (the ame as the USDA).  Global demand is bullish and Sep-Aug 16/17 SB consumption is forecast to outpace Production by 2 MMT.  According to the USDA, use could be 1.7 million tons LESS. Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to range between 23-44 mill bu.

 

Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 4% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK, 6% LAST YEAR, and 5% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  na% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK,  2% LAST YEAR, and 2 % AVG

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   73% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 80% G/E THIS WEEK, 79% LAST WEEK

US DROPPING LEAVES: 46% THIS WEEK,  26 % LAST WEEK, 50% LAST YEAR and 43% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES:  31 %  THIS WEEK, 14 % LAST WEEK, 48 % LAST YEAR, and 37 % AVG

WHEAT          

UP 2

A Sales announcement of 145 K HRW was sold to Morocco for delivery in 16/17.  Egypt is considering exempting wheat contracted prior to their zero tolerance ergot from their regulations.  Russia is pondering a zero export tax next week. Tomorrow’s Export Sales report should run between 11- 18 mill bu.

 Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  98 % THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 93% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  17% THIS WEEK, 6 % LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 16% AVG