COMMENTARY 9/20/17

Still have an eye on the river gauge.The OH and MS Rivers both need rain to bring river levels higher in order to load full drafts.  Low water levels  causing significant draft restrictions and causing the cost per bushel to increase!

CORN

UP 2

Still waiting for wet corn to dry down?  Yep, it is cheap if it wasn’t forward contracted.  Better keep waiting.  The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at 1.0-1.25% and inflation at 2% remains unusually puny.  More variability noted in early yield reports today as heard some twice replanted May corn near Shelbyville, IL made 118bpa.  Some planted around Good Friday are yielding in 200s in the same vicinity. Basis is weakening as weather forecast looks open and more harvest activity anticipated.  THERE IS MUCH MOTIVATION TO HOLD THESE BU’S OFF THE MARKET by any (most) means possible.

 

BEANS

 

UP 4

Farmer selling continues to be non existent and the USDA announced a huge 960KT sale to UD and 132 to China for 17/18. This is the sixth biggest sale EVER announced (the biggest  was 2.9 MMT in 12′). Even with today’s big sale(s) we are still 24% behind (6 MMT) last year. We could make up for lost time if the USDA is right with its forecast for exports at 2.250 BILL vs. 2.170 last year. Yield reports in the N are still inconsistent but those that are being talked about are huge (like in the 70’s).

 

WHEAT

 

UP 7

Finally friendly, due to Fund buying, which is odd given the lack of news……AND the dollar was up 800 today too! Good ains are expected in the Plains and HRW Belt,  increasing pre-plant moisture next week.  Global weather concerns still rule though as dry weather in Australia and excessive rains in Argentina have caused some short covering. World wheat values have been getting better but the US is still not yet competitive with EU and Soviet Union.