COMMENTARY 9/20/16

The best rain chances are for the NW third of the Corn Belt Wed/Thur and the N Plains Thur/Sun. Temps are unusually warm so a killing freeze is not expected, although things should be a bit cooler NEXT week.  In SAmerica, spotty showers turning to drier weather for the S regions for the next 10 days  as areas of high pressure pass, which should help corn and sunflower planting from Argentina down into S Brazil.

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 20.8′ and forecast 19.3by 9/25.  

CORN

OLD ~ UP 3

Harvest is starting to lag behind, quality concerns, and 6-10 and 7-14 day forecast looks a little wetter.   Cordonnier’s US yield estimate is still at 172.0 and vs the USDA at 174.4 with a neutral to lower bias.  FSA acreage data in Oct could give us a larger harvested total.  BIG yields being seen in Central IL and IN which match or exceed 2014’s records.  Drum roll…..The first thoughts on 2018’s corn plantings: Cordonnier expects a 1.5 to 2.0 million decline.

Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 9% THIS WEEK,  5 % LAST WEEK, 9% LAST YEAR, and 12% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  9% THIS WEEK,  3 % LAST WEEK,  11% LAST YEAR, and 14 % AVG

US CONDITIONS:  74% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  85% G/E THIS WEEK, 85% LAST WEEK

US DENT: 93% THIS WEEK,  87 % LAST WEEK, 92% LAST YEAR, and 91% AVG

IL DENT:  91% THIS WEEK,  83 % LAST WEEK,  93% LAST YEAR, and 89 % AVG

US MATURE: 53% THIS WEEK,  33 % LAST WEEK, 48% LAST YEAR, and 48% AVG

IL MATURE:  63% THIS WEEK,  42 % LAST WEEK,  73% LAST YEAR, and 62 % AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 17

China is back in buying US beans and harvest needs a little kick-start. The N Midwest is wetter  than liked and dry weather in S A. The USDA reported a 110 K MT sale to China for delivery in 16/17.  Cordonnier has his US yield unchanged at 50.5 and the USDA at 50.6.  He expects acres could increase by 2 million plus, later this spring.  With the initial early yields being reported it certainly isn’t hard to think that these est’s ARE TOO LOW.  Brazil’s bean exports are running nearly 60% behind last year.  Sep’s shipments of 1.4 to 1.6 MMT is short of their 2015 3.7 MMT (monthly) total.  Safras is reporting the Brazilian producer as being 20% sold on their 16-17 crop.  That’s down from 29% last year but similar to their 5 yr avg.

Monday’s

US HARVESTED: 4% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK, 6% LAST YEAR, and 5% AVG

IL HARVESTED:  na% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK,  2% LAST YEAR, and 2 % AVG

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   73% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 80% G/E THIS WEEK, 79% LAST WEEK

US DROPPING LEAVES: 46% THIS WEEK,  26 % LAST WEEK, 50% LAST YEAR and 43% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES:  31 %  THIS WEEK, 14 % LAST WEEK, 48 % LAST YEAR, and 37 % AVG

WHEAT          

UP 2

Little new news.  Spring wheat is mostly harvested and 5% ahead of last year.  Wheat exporter’s continue to avoid Egypt due to ergot sensitivities.  The Commonwealth of Australia is reporting possible frost damage for the W crop.  Hot/dry conditions in Ukraine are causing delays of their winter planting.

 Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  98 % THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 93% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:  17% THIS WEEK, 6 % LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 16% AVG