COMMENTARY 9/19/17

The OH and MS Rivers both need rain to bring river levels higher in order to load full drafts.  Low levels last week caused significant restrictions and caused the cost per bushel to increase.

Multiple rounds of storms are in store for the much needed Plains.  Significant accum is also slated for the W Corn/bean Belt, while the Central and South are on the dry side which will help speed harvest ripening.

CORN

DOWN 3

Technical Fund selling was the feature, as the board struggles to break through the resistance at the 20 day average. Funds sold some 7k contracts of corn, bringing the total to 13k and it is only Tue. The dollar was down 200 points as it hovers around 2 year lows. Yesterday’s crop progress report last night had harvest at 7% complete, down from 8% last year and the 5 yr of 11%.  The market is patiently waiting for harvest to start and for the next Usda report on 9/29. Cheap prices and no place to put this big crop.  THERE IS MUCH MOTIVATION TO HOLD THESE BU’S OFF THE MARKET by any (most) means possible.

 

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC DENT:   86%TW,  75% LW, 92% LY, and 90% AVG

IL YC DENT:   89% TW, 82% LW, 94% LY, and 94% AVG

US YC MATURE:   34%TW,  21% LW, 50% LY, and 47% AVG

IL YC MATURE:   39% TW, 26% LW, 60% LY, and 59% AVG

US HARVESTED:  7% TW,  5 % LW, 8% LY , and 11% AVG

IL HARVESTED: 5% TW,  2 % LW, 8% LY , and 13% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  61% G/E,  61% LW, and 74% LY 

IL CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 56 LW a 4% DECREASE!

BEANS

DOWN 2

Another quiet day.  Very little harvest news with rains across the Belt. Still no early frost worries here and in SA,  Brazil forecasts have some precip in the 10 day outlook. The re IS potential for higher acreage according to FSA data.  In exports, buying continues as China still needs to buy some Oct and ALL of Nov’s needs. We need some water in the river! More draft restrictions ARE expected!  Parts of the IL River have been hampered from barges running a-ground and levels near Memphis may drop another 3-4 feet by the end of the week.

Crop Progress:

US YSB DROPPING LEAVES:   41%TW,  22% LW,  43% LY, and 43% AVG

IL YSB DROPPING LEAVES:    32% TW,  13% LW, 29% LY, and 34% AVG

US HARVESTED:  4% TW,  na % LW, 4% LY , and 5% AVG

IL HARVESTED: 1% TW,  na % LW,  na % LY , and 1% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  59% G/E 60% LW, and 73% LY   a 1% DECREASE!

IL CONDITIONS: 53% G/E, 57% LW a 4% DECREASE!

WHEAT

UNCHANGED

Funds were light sellers.  Yesterday’s crop progress report showed 13% winter wheat planted vs 15% average. HRW acreage intentions continue to be debated with crop rotation suggesting a slight uptick over marginal profitability.

 

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:    13% TW, 5 % LW, 15%LY, and 15%AVG