COMMENTARY 9/19/16

After last weeks wet Fri and then the uneventful weekend (which was supposed to be wet) unseasonably warm and dry is in store for the half of the yc belt.  The N is a little different as a wetter period affects the N third to half of the Belt.  In SA, strong storms interrupted the hot/dry as it traveled across Mato Grosso in Brazil.   A few other pop up storms are likely for S Brazil and Paraguay.

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 22.6′ and forecast 19.6by 9/24.  

CORN

OLD ~ UNCHANGED

Early gains faded, but good weather supports harvest activity!   The USDA announced a 191 K MT sale to Mexico for delivery in 16/17.  Export Inspections  were near the top end of the range 51.6 vs expectations of 39-51 with large volumes going to S Korea and Mexico.  Crop ratings are expected to vary from up1/down 1 from last week’s 74% and 68% last year.  Harvest is thought to be 9% complete, a slight gain from 5% LW and versus 9% LY and the 5 yr avg of 12%.  We’re starting to see some MORE impressive yields from Central IL……yields that are ABOVE 2014’s record.

 

BEANS     

UP 6

China is back from their holiday which had things higher most of the morning.  Exports Inspections were a bit puny at  27.7 vs expectations of 37-51 mill bu. China lifted (cancelled) 14.6.  Today’s Crop Ratings are expected to be up 1/ down 1 from last week’s 73% and versus 63% last year.  Harvest is thought to be 4% complete, 2 points behind last year and vs the 5-year average of 5%

 

WHEAT          

UNCHANGED

No new news, really.  Export Inspections were decent at 20.7 mill bu vs expectations of 17-24.  China accounted for 2.2 mill bu.