COMMENTARY 9/18/17

Multiple rounds of storms are in store for the much needed Plains.  Significant accum is also slated for the W Corn/bean Belt, while the Central and South are on the dry side which will help speed harvest ripening.  The OH and MS Rivers both need rain to bring river levels higher in order to load full drafts.  Low levels last week caused significant restrictions and caused the cost per bushel to increase.

CORN

DOWN 3

Everyone is waiting on harvest progress to kick into high gear especially the barge freight industry. Now it is a WAITING GAME.  Conditions were unchanged on the week at 61% G/E but IL’s saw a 4% DECREASE. Corn maturity was is behind at 34% vs 47% average.   No one is excited about $3.20 cash, and additional drying, and then there’s the cost of dp. Exploding freight and unexcited CIF values, a big crop and big cash carry to Dec/Jan is forcing river terminals  to increase their DP charges exponentially.  THERE IS MUCH MOTIVATION TO HOLD THESE BU’S OFF THE MARKET by any means possible. S IL yields ARE as variable as we thought AND also a surprise….. 70- 250.  A wide variant!

 

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC DENT:   86%TW,  75% LW, 92% LY, and 90% AVG

IL YC DENT:   89% TW, 82% LW, 94% LY, and 94% AVG

US YC MATURE:   34%TW,  21% LW, 50% LY, and 47% AVG

IL YC MATURE:   39% TW, 26% LW, 60% LY, and 59% AVG

US HARVESTED:  7% TW,  5 % LW, 8% LY , and 11% AVG

IL HARVESTED: 5% TW,  2 % LW, 8% LY , and 13% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  61% G/E,  61% LW, and 74% LY 

IL CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 56 LW a 4% DECREASE!

BEANS

DOWN 1

No new beans any time soon here.  The USDA announced more sales of four boats 261K tons to China, and 2 boats, 126K tons to unknown, both for the 2017/18 market year. Export Inspections disappointed at 34.1 mill bu vs expectations of 37-51.  Same story as with corn on the freight costs and low water issues.  More draft restrictions ARE expected!  Parts of the IL River have been hampered from barges running a-ground and levels near Memphis may drop another 3-4 feet by the end of the week.  This afternoons Conditions Ratings were a bit of a surprise and early yields are hearty so far!  Also, today we find out that LA is only 63% harvested, vs 40% LW, MS is 38% vs 29% LW, AR is 24% vs 17% LW.  That makes more sense than what was being reported prior to the Houston hurricane and after the the water receded.

Crop Progress:

US YSB DROPPING LEAVES:   41%TW,  22% LW,  43% LY, and 43% AVG

IL YSB DROPPING LEAVES:    32% TW,  13% LW, 29% LY, and 34% AVG

US HARVESTED:  4% TW,  na % LW, 4% LY , and 5% AVG

IL HARVESTED: 1% TW,  na % LW,  na % LY , and 1% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  59% G/E 60% LW, and 73% LY   a 1% DECREASE!

IL CONDITIONS: 53% G/E, 57% LW a 4% DECREASE!

WHEAT

DOWN 5

The only real fundamental news continues to be the declining Australian production. More est are pegging the crop size sub 20 MMT and Abare is est exports at 18.2 MMT vs 20.9 LM and 22.1 MMT a year ago. Today’s Export Inspections were near the top end of the range at 17.1 mill bu vs expectations of 11 – 18 mill.

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT PLANTED:    13% TW, 5 % LW, 15%LY, and 15%AVG