COMMENTARY 9/18/14 **ND SRW BIN IS BEGINING TO GET FULL ~ CALL FIRST**

 The 6-10 day forecast and the 8-14 day look good for harvest!  – Below normal precip, warm in the west, cool in the east.  A cool front will move across the Corn Belt over the weekend creating off widely-scattered showers.  The impact to harvest will be limited as low coverage and a subsequent, lengthy period of drying takes over the next week to 10 days. In HRW country, huge amounts of rain are becoming more probable the next several days which will delay planting in TX and OK but at the same time keeping soil profiles wet for upcoming growth.  The nearby chances for the Corn Belt frost is shrinking as daily minimums are likely remain above 36°F.

 

HIGH WATER!   St Louis river levels EASING at +24.4ft  and forecast to be 17.2 by 9/23.

CORN                    

DOWN 4   

We haven’t seen ANY harvest pressure as of yet.  Good weather and rec-c-c-cord yields, and the possibility of the 3+ MMT larger EU crop takes another bite out of the wallet.  Chinese prove to be tough negotiators on DDGs as  discussions reportedly break-down; ½ MMT of production reportedly quarantined at Chinese ports. Export Sales  was mid-range at 26 vs expectations of 22-30.  Lanworth raises US yield from 173.7 to 174.5 and lowers the production  85 mbu to 14.56 bbu. We are hearing more comments of sub $3.00 corn futures for the 14/15 crop year.

Cargill’s lawsuit against Syngenta AG over rejections of genetically modified U.S. corn by China may be just the start of legal challenges against global seed makers over trade with one of the world’s biggest markets. Trading giant Cargill said in court documents on Friday that it had lost more than $90 million because Syngenta sold Agrisure Viptera corn, known as MIR 162, to U.S. farmers without first obtaining import approval from China, which has turned away boatloads of U.S. crops containing the variety over the past year. The lawsuit will be a test case of who is ultimately responsible for such rejections that damage international trade: the seed companies that develop unapproved GMO traits or the merchants who sell grain that may be contaminated with it. – Reuters

Monday’s Crop Progress report remained unchanged showing corn at 74% G/E this week, 74% LW, 53%LY. The State of IL   82% G/E vs 82% LW.  US Dented is 82% TW, 69% LW, 79% LY and 85% Avg.  The IL dented 91% TW 84% LW 82%  LY, and 86% AVG.   US MATURE  was 27% TW, 15% LW, 20% LY, and 39% AVG.  The State of IL MATURE was 37% TW, 17% LW, 22% LY, and 50% AVG.  US HARVESTED 4% TW, NA LW, 4% LY, and 9% AVG.  The State of IL HARVESTED 2% TW, 1% LW, 1% LY, and 13% AVG.

The crystal ball of Rabobank ‘s Price Prognosis has Q3 corn valued at $3.70/bushel and  Q4 at $3.50.   According to Bloomberg, another pundit expects U.S. corn prices to remain sub-$3 from 15/16 through 19/20 crop years with 15/16 ending corn stocks rising to nearly 3 bbu.  An IL Farm Appraisal group reports a 4.2% drop in average Illinois farm land prices, to $13,000 for the first half of  2014.

 

BEANS    

DOWN 11

The addition to the world’s bean carry-out (stx/use ratio) COULD very well be the LARGEST EVER since the export era began (32% versus 25% in the current year). Export Sales were good at 53.9 vs expectations of 40-51.  Soybean meal was 200, near the upper end of expectations.

A bountiful crop swells in the pods!  Giant yield reports flood areas in harvest.  Hightower Report:  beans could fall to $8.50.  CONAB says the Brazil bean crop is increasing 400 K MT to 86.1 million, a 4.6 MMT gain over last year’s figure.  Celeres sees a 6% larger Brazil bean crop in 14/15, rising to 91.36 MMT on 3.6% more acres.

The Rabo Bank price outlook for Q3 is $12.00,  Q2 is $10.00, and $10.60 in 1st quarter of 2105, expecting higher acreages in Brazil and Argentina despite prospects of lower prices.   A Farm Future’s survey indicates a 2.1% increase in 2015 U.S. soybean plantings to 86.6 million and sees returns from both beans and corn falling below the cost of production.

US CROP CONDITIONS remained unchanged at 72 % G/E, 72% LW, and 50% LY.  The State of IL was 76% G/E THIS WEEK and 78%LW. US DROPPING LEAVES 24% TW, 12% LW, 24% LY, and 32% AVG.  IL DROPPING LEAVES was 20% TW, 7%  LW, 12% LY, and 25% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 11

Lackluster export sales leaves our pace behind the USDA forecast at 26 versus 22-30 expected and 25 needed.  Sluggish export demand concerns over the longer term and abundant global availability and export competition rises.  Ample supplies and concerns the Black Sea crops may get even larger.

US Winter Wheat Planted is 12% G/E THIS WEEK,  3% LW, and 11% LY, and 11% AVG

Be prepared to carry lower quality wheat through fall harvest an into NEXT year’s wheat.  The market is well armed to pay you for your troubles.

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.