COMMENTARY 9/16/16

It could be one’s imagination, but it SEEMS WETTER than what was forecast!  Rainfall the last 24 hours was much wetter than expected, especially MO and IA with amounts ranging from 1 – 3”!  Now it looks even wetter as showers fudge in to include Sat AND Sun now.  Another shot of rain is expected mid next week and into next weekend too.  The first non-killing frost may be possible Sep 26-30 for the Central and N.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 17.3′ and forecast 22.0 by 9/21.  

CORN

UP 7

Heavier rains are keeping  harvest from progressing! -and not going to help the Diplodia issues either.  The BA Exchange expects Argentine farmers to plant 25% more corn acres. The 16 crop is finally complete and the 16/17 planting is underway and 6.7% complete.  Other sources suggest less optimism for corn and input suppliers are reportedly not seeing active buying.  Crop Progress Report will be out Mon afternoon.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 17% TW (25% LW), Bearish 42% (29% LW), and Neutral 42% (46% LW)

 

BEANS     

UP 15

Old crop supplies dwindle as we wait for the wew crop to ripen.  Meal basis too was firming.  Even more analysts are suggesting the USDA’s 1.9 bill bu old crop bean crush is 14-15 mill bu too high.  Early yield info is still supportive of the USDA’s 50.6 bpa national average.  We are on pace to ship over DOUBLE the amount of soybeans to China  than we did LAST Sep.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 8% TW (25% LW),  Bearish 58% (46% LW), Neutral 33% (29% LW)

 

WHEAT          

UP 4

Strength from the aboves.  A specialist from Texas expects last year’s drop in wheat acres to be complimented by yet another 10-20% drop this fall.  Strategie Grains lowered their soft wheat Prod est for the EU 4 MMT to 136.5 mill noting that only 59% of this year’s crop is of milling grade, down from 66% a month ago and well under last year’s 71%!

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 8% TW (21% LW), Bearish 50% (33% LW), Neutral 42% (46% LW)