COMMENTARY 8/9/18

 

CORN

UNCHANGED

Pre-report squaring in front of tomorrow’s USDA report. Thursday’s Export Sales FIRM at 21.8 mill  vs expectations of 12-24 for old crop and new crop at 25 mill and expected to rise further. Tomorrow, the avg guess for a Prod of14.416 bill with a 176.2 yield. New crop carryout is expected to be 1.636 bbu vs 1.552 in July. In SA, Conab lowered their Brazil crop estimate to 82.18 MMT vs 82.92 last month.

BEANS              

 

DOWN 6

We’ve been saying it all week!  This was the LAST of pre-report positioning. ALSO:  This is the FIRST report that the media doesn’t get to see early, so everyone will have the same opportunities. The yield est is expected to be 49.6.  The Craayout  638 mill bu vs last year’s 580. A surprise would be leaving the yield and/or Carryout unchanged.  CONAB has left their Brazil est relatively unchanged. Our US Export SALES were FIRM again at 15.5 mill vs expectations of 4 – 15 mill.  New crop was 19.6 mill AND there was a new sale announced of 135KMT of meal to the Philipines.

WHEAT

DOWN 5

Lots of uncertainty world-wide!  Export Sales were 11.6 mill vs expectations of 7-18 mill. Recent rallies and an eroding calendar is moving bu’s nearby.  Tomorrow we’ll get to see what kind of physical damages have been done to the counties productions that are dealing with droughts….so it could be interesting!