COMMENTARY 8/8/18

A high pressure system sets us up for cooler temps NEXT week locally with highs in the mid 80’s.  The Plains, however, will be above normal with highs in the 90’s, including ALL of the spring wheat and some 20% of corn and beans.  Some isolated showers are expected for the SE half of the belt for the next 5 days with a tenth to a half inch coverage for dry areas of IN and OH.  Farther S in the Delta, they are expecting a half inch to an inch and a half. 

 

CORN

UNCHANGED

Firmer early as forecasted rains in some areas were a little disappointing.  Export Sales, out tomorrow are expected to be 12-24 mill.  Production for Friday’s big USDA report has Prod est at 14.416 bill bu using a 176.3 yield and a  1.636 bbu carryout.

 

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  71% G/E, 72% LW, and 60% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    81% G/E,   80% LW,  58% LY

US SILKING:   96% TW,  91 % LW, 92% LY, and 92% AVG

IL SILKING:   100% TW,  100% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG

US DOUGH:   57% TW,  38 % LW, 39% LY, and 37% AVG

IL DOUGH:   81% TW,  64% LW, 54% LY, and 51% AVG

US DENT:   12% TW,  na % LW, 6% LY, and 6% AVG

IL DENT:   21% TW,  6% LW, 8% LY, and 6% AVG

BEANS              

UP 4

Fund buying and a little concern that some areas are a little on the dry side.  Talk of tightening supplies in China and stronger rapeseed cost also helped support.  As Chinese imports slow,  supplies tighten, but does this mean they have to come back to the US or is their plan to slow down protein levels in their animal diets? Rapeseed values in both Canada and the EU have been going up and the weather problems in Australia are adding to the concerns.  In SA, water levels along the Parana river in Argentina are forcing shippers to load smaller drafts and may be causing meal basis to weaken some there due to higher freight costs.  Also there is talk of SA farmers buying their own trucks in an effort to relieve recent trucker strikes and a skyrocketing freight.  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 4-15 mill bu.  Friday’s report has the crop at a 4.407 bill bu, with a 49.6 yield.  Usda was using a 48.5 bpa previously. Carry out for 18/19 look like 638 mill bu.

 

 

Crop Progress:
US YS CONDITIONS:  67% G/E, 70% LW, and 60% LY

IL YSB CONDITIONS:    75% G/E,   75% LW,  and 64% LY

US YSB BLOOMING:   92% TW,  86% LW,  89% LY, and 86% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   95% TW,  92% LW, 93% LY, and 88% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   75% TW,  60 % LW, 63% LY, and 58% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   84% TW,  77% LW, 67% LY, and 60% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 2

Mixed, waiting on Fri’s report to confirm the worldwide dry conditions to be confirmed. If it IS confirmed, should mean more demand for US wheat! Export Sales are expected to be 7-18 mill bu.

 

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER HARVESTED:     90% TW, 85% LW, 93% LY, and 92% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     100% TW, 100% LW, 100% LY, and 100% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   74% G/E TW, 78% LW, and 32% LY

SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:   13% G/E TW, na % LW, 8% LY, and 4% AVG