COMMENTARY 8/7/18

A cooler front should create chances for showers for the SE half of the belt the next few days with 3/4″ to 1.5″ expected, followed by a week of dry, especially for the NW. Heat focusing now on the Plains.

CORN

UNCHANGED

Today had a pre-report type of feel.  Yest’s 1% drop in yc ratings to 71% G/E was as expected.  Harvest has started in TX, LA, and Georgia. some of the driest spots of IN and OH have recv’d rain with more chances to come! The longer it takes to reach maturity due to cool/damp conditions, so are the likely-hood for ear girth and kernel depth, like that of last year.  The crop feels GREAT right now but how will it compare to last year?  The avg production est is 14.416 bill bu using a 176.3 yield.  That would equate to a  1.636 bbu carryout. – But that doesn’t really feel that bearish with the demand we are seeing from other countries!

 

Yest’s Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  71% G/E, 72% LW, and 60% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    81% G/E,   80% LW,  58% LY

US SILKING:   96% TW,  91 % LW, 92% LY, and 92% AVG

IL SILKING:   100% TW,  100% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG

US DOUGH:   57% TW,  38 % LW, 39% LY, and 37% AVG

IL DOUGH:   81% TW,  64% LW, 54% LY, and 51% AVG

US DENT:   12% TW,  na % LW, 6% LY, and 6% AVG

IL DENT:   21% TW,  6% LW, 8% LY, and 6% AVG

BEANS              

UP 12

Support from yest’s crop ratings dropping 3% AND….. a large increase (400k tonnes) in meal business (with China!).  Some was old crop, some was new crop. Friday’s report has the crop at a 4.407 bill bu, assuming a 49.6 yield.  Usda was using a 48.5 bpa previously. Carry out for 18/19 look like 638 mill bu.  If yields grow, so will the carry out!  Bean spreads have reflected this over the last 50-60 days.

 

Crop Progress:
US YS CONDITIONS:  67% G/E, 70% LW, and 60% LY

IL YSB CONDITIONS:    75% G/E,   75% LW,  and 64% LY

US YSB BLOOMING:   92% TW,  86% LW,  89% LY, and 86% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   95% TW,  92% LW, 93% LY, and 88% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   75% TW,  60 % LW, 63% LY, and 58% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   84% TW,  77% LW, 67% LY, and 60% AVG

 

WHEAT

DOWN 6

Weaker with longs selling.  Fri’s  USDA report has the ALL wheat production  guess at a 1.857 bill bu in a 1.7-1.907 range and vs 1.881 on the last report.  HRS harvest came in above expectations yest. Australia’s drought is expected to get worse in the next 7-10 days on approx 30% of their production area.  The prospect of US exports continues to grow as the global balance sheet tightens but the stocks to use ratio for both classes of wheat has additional work to do.  World wheat values for ALL wheat ending stocks is est to be 254.5 MMT, down from 260.9. This will also help increase the damnd for US corn! We’ll know a lot more come Fri.

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER HARVESTED:     90% TW, 85% LW, 93% LY, and 92% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     100% TW, 100% LW, 100% LY, and 100% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   74% G/E TW, 78% LW, and 32% LY

SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:   13% G/E TW, na % LW, 8% LY, and 4% AVG