COMMENTARY 8/6/18

A cooler front should create chances for showers for the SE half of the belt the next few days with 3/4″ to 1.5″ expected, followed by a week of dry, especially for the NW. Temperatures, however, for the NW will be warmer than normal this week, including the spring wheat.  and the northwest third of corn and soybeans), and near- to slightly above-normal elsewhere.  Peculiar as it may seem, as of yest, the last 30 day chart shows dryness for corn and beans the highest since 2014 for this time period.  Nearly 59% of spring wheat was dry, which is the highest coverage in early Aug in over six yrs.

CORN

UP 1

Crop is so big, the market seems unconcerned with the dryness reported above. Dryness at this point will hurry fall along. Export Inspections were in range at 50.7 mill and vs expectations of 39 -67.  Big takers were W Hemisphere at 21 mill bu , Japan 14, Mexico 10.8, and Asia/S Korea 8 mill each.  This afternoon’s crop ratings were expected to be steady to down one. See Actuals below!  Farm Futures has  our US corn yield at 175.4 and Production at 14.360 bill.  Mexico is expecting resolution to key NAFTA issues this/next week  according to Reuters.

Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  71% G/E, 72% LW, and 60% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    81% G/E,   80% LW,  58% LY

US SILKING:   96% TW,  91 % LW, 92% LY, and 92% AVG

IL SILKING:   100% TW,  100% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG

US DOUGH:   57% TW,  38 % LW, 39% LY, and 37% AVG

IL DOUGH:   81% TW,  64% LW, 54% LY, and 51% AVG

US DENT:   12% TW,  na % LW, 6% LY, and 6% AVG

IL DENT:   21% TW,  6% LW, 8% LY, and 6% AVG

BEANS              

DOWN 9

Lack of Chinese demand pressed on futures again but demand from countries OTHER than China helped support.  For example, Export Inspections were STRONG at 32.8 mill vs expectations of 18 -28, and compares with just 28.2 last week, 25.2 last year 31 needed per week. The HUGE award goes to the EU, taking a MASSIVE 17.8 mill!! (they kept their word and DID significantly start buying!) Other Asia took 7.2 and China (bless their hearts) did take 2.4 mill. Old crop exports WILL top the 2.1 bill bu mark!  An article by Bloomberg mentions that China could reduce bean imports by at least 10 MMT this coming year, by attempting to find low protein feed replacements and importing as much a 9 MMT of alternative seed/meals like rapeseed, sunflower, and palm.  Safras est’s Brazil’s new crop sales up 10% from last year’s eight.  This afternoon’s crop ratings were thought to be steady to one lower. See Actuals below.

Crop Progress:
US YS CONDITIONS:  67% G/E, 70% LW, and 60% LY

IL YSB CONDITIONS:    75% G/E,   75% LW,  and 64% LY

US YSB BLOOMING:   92% TW,  86% LW,  89% LY, and 86% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   95% TW,  92% LW, 93% LY, and 88% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   75% TW,  60 % LW, 63% LY, and 58% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   84% TW,  77% LW, 67% LY, and 60% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 18

Woo-doggies!  Export supplies continue to dwindle.  The US wheat supply is not looking so bad after all!  According to the AHDB, Britain’s shrinking crop could drop to a five yr low of 13.5 mill tons, down from 14.8 last year.  Informa lowered their all US  Production estimate on Friday to 1.825 bill from 1.869 last month. This was composed of 1.168 bill winter wheat, 71 mill durum, and 586 mill spring.  Their avg yield for spring is 45.4 bpa, down slightly from July’s 46.8.  India’s weather service est’s a 47% chance of them receiving below average accum for the second half of the monsoon season that runs June to Sep. Jun/Jul were ALREADY low.  Egypt has enough reserves for four months.

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER HARVESTED:     90% TW, 85% LW, 93% LY, and 92% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     100% TW, 100% LW, 100% LY, and 100% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   74% G/E TW, 78% LW, and 32% LY

SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:   13% G/E TW, na % LW, 8% LY, and 4% AVG