COMMENTARY 8/31/17

The Delta and Harvey part ways and move into recovery mode.  Harvey’s remnants are slowing harvest functions in AR, MS, TN.  The remainder of the Corn Belt looks dry for the next 10 -14 days.  Temps are expected to relatively cool for that same period of time, so cool in fact, there is a moderate chance for a non-killing frost in the N 5% – 10% of corn/beans areas.  Then, a new tropical system Irma is spit-balling her way W, headed for Cuba/Jamaica by the end of next week.  Models are depicting which route is most likely to take and is thought to easily become a Cat 3 storm, with possibility of even growing to a Cat 4!

**With harvest slowly approaching and dp pricing deadlines coming due, ~this is a GREAT opportunity to ask your neighbor how their basis contracts are treating them!** (stay OUTSIDE of arm’s reach.  They are likely to feel a bit jaded)

CORN

UP 12

A GREAT bounce today on month end short covering. Export Sales were towards the upper end of the range at 7.4 mill vs expectations of 0 – 8.  New Sales were exceedingly hearty at 31.7 mill bu vs expectations of 16 – 28.  Ethanol margins were strong and supportive. Exports look to be strong in Sep due to ethanol’s steep discount to the rbobs.  Some traders are also trying to push as much eth into Brazil before import tariff/quotas come into effect. There are still alot of unknowns on damage and how long it will take refineries to get back up and running.

 

BEANS

UP 12

Outside buying at month end and a lack of hedge pressure helped support. Export Sales were NOT negative as feared from cancellations at just 4.5 mill vs expectations of (negative) -22 to + 7 mill bu.  China accounted for 7.7 and Thailand 5 of the total while unknown only cancelled 9.3. New crop was a hearty 57.3 mill bu! <-41 mill of the new crop was purchased by the same unknown who cancelled the old crop. Meal Sales for old crop were decent at 71.7 vs expectations of 30-160 while new crop was GIANT-like at 349 k vs expectations of 75 -150.  Stone released their latest crop est and pegged the bean yield at 49.8, a 2.2 bpa increase from their last est.  Could bigger private’s est’s s put pressure on futures if the market feels a bigger crop is coming?  Stay tuned!

 

WHEAT

UP 5

Finally!  Technical buying lashed a bit of support!  After the beating we’ve been through, who cares what the reason for going up is! Decent Export Sales were had today at 19.7 mill vs expectations of 11 -22 mill.