COMMENTARY 8/31/15

THANKS FOR GETTING YOUR DP BU’S PRICED!!

Warm and dry through this next Sat.  Sun a cool front returns temperatures to seasonable levels and rain across the Western and NW half of the corn and bean regions.

St Louis river level LOWER at +8.6 and forecast  to be 9.6 by  9/4  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

CORN

UNCHANGED   

Hefty Export Inspections at 39.4 vs expectations31-35 expected.  Of that, Japan took 12.9 and Mexico took 11.3 and accounted for over ½ of the total.  Milo Export Inspections were light at only 2 million and about ½ of the needed rate. China was the destination.  Today’s Crop Ratings were expected to be steady to down 1 point from last weeks’s 69% figure. See below for actuals.   The EU reduced their  corn production estimate from 65.5 MMT in July down to 58.7.  The August USDA figure was 62.25 and may go lower still despite last week’s single point improvement in crop ratings.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish,22% TW (38% LW), Bearish 41% (29% LW), Neutral 37% (33% LW)

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 68% G/E , 69% LW  74% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 55% G/E 56% LW

US DOUGH:   92% TW,  85 % LW, 89% LY, and 90% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH:  95% TW, 91% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG

US DENT:   60% TW,  39 % LW, 50% LY, and 60% AVG.  The State of IL DENT:  73% TW, 55% LW, 69% LY, and 73% AVG

US MATURE:   9% TW,  na% LW, 7% LY, and 15% AVG.  The State of IL DENT:  21% TW, 3% LW, 4% LY, and 23% AVG

 

 

BEANS     

UP 2     **Now using Nov (X) Futures!   

Still a few people finding loads of beans that need to  move before Oct 1 harvest.  Export Inspections were 6 – 8 mill bu vs expectations of  4-8 to mostly Mid-East and Mexico as destinations.  Also, the USDA reported 125 K MT of 15/16 beans were sold to Unknown.  Today’s Crop Ratings were expected to be steady at 63% G/E to down 1; last year was 72%.  See below for actuals.  According to Agrural est, Brazil farmers are thought to be 30% sold, compared to 10% last year.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 18% (15% LW), Bearish 52% (70% LW), Neutral 24% (12% LW)

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 63% G/E  and 63% LW  70% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 53% G/E, 52% G/E LW ~ up 1%

US POD SETTING:  93% TW, 87%LW, 94% LY, and 95% AVG.  The State of IL POD SETTING: 94% TW, 88% LW, 97% LY, and 96% AVG.

US LEAF DROPPING:  9% TW, na %LW, 5% LY, and 7% AVG.  The State of IL LEAF DROPPING: 1% TW, na %LW, 1% LY, and 3% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 1    

Very little fresh news.  Market is still trying to get low quality to the appropriate end user.  Stl terminals are beginning to stop taking wheat in order to prepare for fall harvest.  Wheat Inspections were impressive at  22.1 vs expectations of 10-15.  Japan lifted 5.9.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 26% (24% LW), Bearish 33% (48% LW), Neutral 41% (29% LW).

Monday’s Crop Progress:

Spring Wheat Harvested: 88% TW, 75% LW, 36% LY, 62% AVG.