COMMENTARY 8/30/17

The remnants of Harvey split with the nastiest portion now focusing on Houston and SW LA and the portion moving N looks to be moving faster and further to the E.  Corpus Christy is still expected to receive an extra 5″ of accum and 5-10″ for LA.  The Central US, will we turning cool and could include a non-killing frost in E ND We should receive the first blast of fall temps next Mon.  Dry weather for the Plains and Corn Belt, with little likelihood of any hurricane rain to come this far N.

**With harvest slowly approaching and dp pricing deadlines coming due, ~this is a GREAT opportunity to ask your neighbor how their basis contracts are treating them!** (stay OUTSIDE of arm’s reach.  They are likely to feel a bit jaded)

CORN

DOWN 3

Floundering around 8 month lows as we leak lower. Yield ests continue to creep higher and seems the market is getting more confident that the USDA may not of been that far off with their Aug yield est. Cordonnier raised his yield estimate 1 bpa to 166.0 Carryout is expected increase 60 – 204 mill bu to a 2.273 BILLION bu.  The BN railroad is shutdown in the Houston area until who knows when.  Harvest seems to be just around the corner.  Early corn seems to be drying down nicely. Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 0 – 8 mill bu.Today’s EIA report showed production at 1042 kbpd while blender demand came in impressively at 956kbpd (nearly 3% higher than last year). Ethanol margins were pressured it felt the effects of embargo in Houston and many barrels are being forced into other markets.

 

BEANS

DOWN 4

Bean yields are trending to the higher side putting the national avg around 47.8 bpa.  Cordonnier raised his est another half bu to 48 bpa.  We could use another shower here to help finish filling pods.  Nearby basis levels took a hit as Harvey’s remnant speed to the N and E, away from the Gulf and look like the S states will be back to harvesting sooner than originally thought.  Yields in those states has been spectacular. Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be -22 to +7 mill bu.  Looks like some fear more cancellations. Although, the Chinese are not thought to be covered for Sep or October, which is good for us starting the harvest of a giant crop! New crop sales are expected to be 37-55 mill bu.

 

WHEAT

UNCHANGED

Sure feels like a bottom.  Wheat values have plummeted 80 cents since July 21st!  Argentina’s 10 day forecast looks wet, wxpecting  as much as 2″.  This is coming at a time which could be most damaging to quality as it is nearing maturity.