COMMENTARY 8/30/16

Rapid weather changes should lead to a wet pattern starting Sun across the NW Corn Belt as a strong jet stream sends several waves through.  Despite the showers and coolness for the rest of this week, the Delta, up through  the SE Corn Belt will be drier and then turn very warm next week, giving them another chance to get their harvest rolling.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 19.2′ and forecast 20.6by 9/4.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 8   NEW ~ DOWN 5

Harvest is starting down South and weakness in beans bled over into yc.  Weather is going to continue to be a major dominating factor in whether this giant crop chokes the market, or, if it drags harvest out, not causing much issue, getting swept away in every nook and crany.  Cordonnier lowered his corn yield 1 to 172.0 bue to hot temps in Jul, and that the big rain accum in Aug may have been too late.  How ARE those basis contracts feeling?

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  75% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  85% G/E THIS WEEK, 84% LAST WEEK

US DOUGH: 92% THIS WEEK,  85 % LAST WEEK, 90% LAST YEAR, and 87% AVG

IL DOUGH:  95% THIS WEEK,  89 % LAST WEEK,  94% LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

US DENT: 60% THIS WEEK,  40 % LAST WEEK, 54% LAST YEAR, and 52% AVG

IL DENT:  68% THIS WEEK,  47 % LAST WEEK,  68% LAST YEAR, and 66 % AVG

US MATURE: 9% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK, 8% LAST YEAR, and 11% AVG

IL MATURE:  7% THIS WEEK,  1 % LAST WEEK,  16% LAST YEAR, and 16 % AVG

BEANS     

DOWN 13

Bean ratings improved yesterday, surprising the trade so today, the market shrugged off additional export sales.  Another 126 K MT  sale to Unknown for 16/17 deliv was announced this am.  Bean ratings improved 1 to 73% G/E, 10 higher than last year. The trade was expecting unchanged.  Cordonnier raised his yield est a fraction of a bu to 49.5 bpa and compares to the USDA at 48.9.

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   72% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 78% G/E THIS WEEK, 79% LAST WEEK

US SETTING PODS: 94% THIS WEEK,  89 % LAST WEEK, 91% LAST YEAR and 92% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 94%  THIS WEEK, 89 % LAST WEEK, 92 % LAST YEAR, and 94 % AVG

US DROPPING LEAVES: 5% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK, 8% LAST YEAR and 5% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES: na %  THIS WEEK, na % LAST WEEK, 1 % LAST YEAR, and 1 % AVG

WHEAT          

DOWN 7

Mixed today but ended weak.  Yesterday’s drop marked a 10 yr RECORD low for Chicago wheat.  Rains are slowing Russian harvest with just5.4 mill hectares harvested by August 26.  That’s down from 6.4 from last year.

Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  81% THIS WEEK, 65% LAST WEEK, 84% LAST YEAR, and 62% AVG