COMMENTARY 8/29/17

LA now dealing with what is left of Harvey.  As much as 3 – 6” is expected for the Delta later this week.  The Central US, will we turning cool and could include a non-killing frost in E ND We should receive the first blast of fall temps next Mon.  Dry weather for the Plains and Corn Belt, with exception to Harvey remnants this weekend here for IN and IL.

 

CORN

DOWN 2

Weaker.  Crop ratings held steady yesterday with August shipments from Brazil expected to double last year’s.  The USDA reported 226KMT sale to Mexico.  Demand is still fickle at the Gulf, basis levels weak as Delta harvest waits to get restarted after hurricane rain shut it down.  In SA, the bean/corn ratio is incenting producers to sell beans over corn this fall.

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC DOUGH:   86%TW,  76 % LW, 91% LY, and 87% AVG

IL YC DOUGH   94% TW, 91% LW, 94% LY, and 94% AVG

US YC DENT:   44%TW,  29% LW, 57% LY, and 51% AVG

IL YC DENT:   54% TW, 41% LW, 65% LY, and 63% AVG

US YC MATURE:   6%TW,  na % LW, 8% LY, and 10% AVG

IL YC MATURE:   2% TW, na % LW, 6% LY, and 14% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  62% G/E,  62% LW, and 75% LY  ~NO CHANGE!

IL CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 54% LW  a 2% DECREASE!

BEANS

DOWN 4

Inverted from now to Oct, but, then carry forward. Stocks continue to shrink in the N but Delta logistics are being hampered but Harvey. There is still demand for old beans. When will Delta harvest resume?

Crop Progress:

US YSB SETTING PODS:   93%TW,  87% LW,  93% LY, and 92% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   96% TW,  92% LW, 93% LY, and 93% AVG

US YSB DROPPING LEAVES:   6%TW,  na% LW,  5% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YSB DROPPING LEAVES:    na % TW,  na % LW, na% LY, and na% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  61% G/E 60% LW, and 73% LY a 1% INCREASE!

IL CONDITIONS: 57% G/E, 60 LW a 3% DECREASE!

WHEAT

UP 2

We made new contract lows this am and dropped below several 100 day averages.

Crop Progress:

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:    76TW, 58 LW, 79LY, and 66%AVG