COMMENTARY 8/29/16

 HOT temps until next week, with several days of exceptional cool starting Wed/Thu.  The Plains and SW Corn Belt this week has some chances for rain, while most other areas receive a break from being deluged with rain the last several mo’s.  Sun and into next week looks fairly stormy too for the NW.   FL’s tropical storms look like they are going to be less of an impact than once suspected.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 16.1′ and forecast 17.8by 9/3.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 4   NEW ~ DOWN 4

Initial support gives in to new lows.  These torridly hot temps are speeding up harvest!  Locally, hand samples in today were 25 – 29%.  Some additional is rumored at 21-22%, planted early April.  The Pro Farmer yield ended up being within 5 bpa of the USDA at 170.2 bpa and 4.9 below the last USDA est in Aug.  Pro Farmer Production est is 426 mbu smaller at 14.728 bill bu.  Today’s Export Inspections were ABOVE expectations at 56.0 vs thoughts of 31-47. Mexico took 11.8, Taiwan 6.5, Africa 6.1 mill bu, and S Korea 5.1.  Monday afternoon’s Crop Ratings were as expected – to be steady at 74-75% GE, about 7  higher than last year. (see actuals below)  Planalytics has raised their US yield est from 168.8 bpa to 171.  Some traders are of the opinion Sep fut could hit the $3.00 mark.  It’s only 11 cents away!

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  75% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 68% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  85% G/E THIS WEEK, 84% LAST WEEK

US DOUGH: 92% THIS WEEK,  85 % LAST WEEK, 90% LAST YEAR, and 87% AVG

IL DOUGH:  95% THIS WEEK,  89 % LAST WEEK,  94% LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

US DENT: 60% THIS WEEK,  40 % LAST WEEK, 54% LAST YEAR, and 52% AVG

IL DENT:  68% THIS WEEK,  47 % LAST WEEK,  68% LAST YEAR, and 66 % AVG

US MATURE: 9% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK, 8% LAST YEAR, and 11% AVG

IL MATURE:  7% THIS WEEK,  1 % LAST WEEK,  16% LAST YEAR, and 16 % AVG

BEANS     

DOWN 3

Good exports, more demand showing up and Pro Farmer’s tour results, well…..  Bigger than the USDA at 49.3 bpa vs USDA at 48.9bpa. Pro Farmer’s Prod est too was 33 mill bu MORE than the USDA @ 4.093 bill bu.  Another 393 K MMT (14.4 mill bu) sale to Unknown was announced this morning for 16/17.  Monday’s Export Inspections were strong again at 33.8 vs expectations of 22-39 mill bu.  China was huge and hungry at 21.1, Other Asia 4.0, Mexico 2.2, and the EU took 2.0 mill bu.  Planalytics raised their US yield from 47.6 to 48.7 bpa.

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 73% G/E THIS WEEK,   72% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 78% G/E THIS WEEK, 79% LAST WEEK

US SETTING PODS: 94% THIS WEEK,  89 % LAST WEEK, 91% LAST YEAR and 92% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 94%  THIS WEEK, 89 % LAST WEEK, 92 % LAST YEAR, and 94 % AVG

US DROPPING LEAVES: 5% THIS WEEK,  na % LAST WEEK, 8% LAST YEAR and 5% AVG

IL DROPPING LEAVES: na %  THIS WEEK, na % LAST WEEK, 1 % LAST YEAR, and 1 % AVG

WHEAT          

DOWN 13

The Russians continue their big export program.  Egypt goes back to their “zero tolerance” on ergot fungus for imported wheat.  Recently they had been allowing a .05% allowance. Mondays’ Export Inspections were 18.8 vs expectations of 15-24 and 7.8 per week needed.

 Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  81% THIS WEEK, 65% LAST WEEK, 84% LAST YEAR, and 62% AVG