COMMENTARY 8/28/2015

It’s time to get those old bu’s on DP priced before Aug 31st!  ~JUST 1 DAY LEFT!!

Overnight rainfall was heavy in E NE and W IA, but within expectations.  Sharp warming for the next 7 to 10 days across the Central US as an upper-level high dominates.  The heavy rain from Tropical Storm Erika is expected to stay in the SE.  A seasonably cooler and wetter potentially begins  Sep 7-10, especially in the N growing areas.

St Louis river level LOWER at +9.8 and forecast  to be 8.5 by  9/2  (Flood Stage is 30.0)



Trade seemed content with  sideways for the time being.  Next week’s warm, dry weather could accelerate maturity and a little earlier start to harvest.  Some of yesterday’s gains were said to be driven by Planalytics cutting their corn yield est from 167.2 to 166.8 bpa, 2 bpa less than the USDA’s August number.  Argentine corn is 96% harvested according to the BA Grain Exchange which still maintains its 26 MMT production est.  IGC raised their global corn production estimate 2 MMT to 968 (1,003 LY), added 2 to C/O,  now 198 (202 LY).  France AgriMer reports that 56% of French corn is rated good to very good, up a point from LW and vs 86% last year.  Locally, as anticipated, the Columbia Bottoms are reporting early corn yields of 140 – 200 bpa from 18.5 to 23.0 moisture.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish,22% TW (38% LW), Bearish 41% (29% LW), Neutral 37% (33% LW)

China’s share of World Consumption according to WSJ:

54% Aluminum, 50%Nickel, 48% Copper, 46% Zinc, 48% Tin, 45% Steel, 40% Lead, 31% Cotton, 30% Rice, 30% Bean Oil, 28% Bean Meal, 23% Gold, 22% Corn, 17% Wheat.  THEY ARE A –>HUGE<– CONSUMER – a consumer that the World can not afford to lose.

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 69% G/E , 70% LW  32% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 56% G/E 56% LW

US DOUGH:   85% TW,  71 % LW, 81% LY, and 81% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH:  91% TW, 84% LW, 92% LY, and 92% AVG

US DENT:   39% TW,  21 % LW, 33% LY, and 43% AVG.  The State of IL DENT:  55% TW, 38% LW, 46% LY, and 58% AVG



UP 7     **Now using Nov (X) Futures!    (Down 28 cents for the week)

Global financial markets are stabilizing.  The market is hoping for income growth and greater protein demand, especially from China.  Crude was higher today, aiding Bean Oil. The IGC is forecasting a 3% boost in Brazil’s bean planted acres to 33 million hectares, vs previous ideas that their acres would decline.  The USDA’s est is up 3.2% at 32.5 million.  IGC also reduced their expected 15/16 global bean stocks by 4 from last month to 44 MMT and vs 43 last year.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 18% (15% LW), Bearish 52% (70% LW), Neutral 24% (12% LW)

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 63% G/E  and 63% LW  70% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 52% G/E, 50% G/E LW ~ up 2%

US BLOOMING:  96% TW, 93%LW, 99% LY, and 98% AVG.  The State of IL BLOOMING: 96% TW, 94% LW, 99% LY, and 98% AVG.

US POD SETTING:  87% TW, 79%LW, 89% LY, and 88% AVG.  The State of IL POD SETTING: 88% TW, 81%LW, 93% LY, and 91% AVG.



DOWN 6    

The global supply picture still looks like dung. The market is becoming more concerned about the exportability of US wheat quality.  Those wanting to have wheat bu’s OUT of the way for corn harvest should be making tracks to get old bu’s moved BEFORE the River Terminals stop receiving wheat.  That deadline HAS been extended to the end of 9/4. 

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 26% (24% LW), Bearish 33% (48% LW), Neutral 41% (29% LW).

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

Spring Wheat Harvested: 75% TW, 53% LW, 26% LY, 47% AVG.