COMMENTARY 8/26/16

Mild and humid conditions expand this weekend and into next week. Above normal temps will cause widespread coverage of normal rainfall.  A tropical system near the Delta is currently a low threat, with the best chance FL for heavy rain.  Aug and July/Aug look like they may go down as the fifth wettest in 121 year!

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 12.7′ and forecast 17.6by 8/31.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 7   NEW ~ DOWN 7

Pro Farmer yields may be below the USDA, the US $ is firmer, and US corn ISN’T as cheap as it was in the world market.  Funds were sellers of 15k contracts today.   IA’s Pro Farmer yield is in a 170-187.6 range vs the USDA at 197.   Looking back at last year, the Tour was 11 bu/acre below the USDA.  They have IL at a 193.5.  That’s 6.5 less than the USDA.  Last year, the Tour was 178 vs the USDA’s 188.  Their MN yield is 182.3 bpa vs USDA at 184 bpa and last year’s Tour of 190.8 bpa.  Their final yield was 170.2 and a 14.7bill bu crop using the USDA’s demand of a  1.9 Carry Out. Harvest has resumed after the heavy  Delta rains subsided.  Yields are better than expected and moist at 17-18%.

Those guys are still at it!  Argentine corn harvest finally reached 94% complete -the same as last year. Yield appears like 130 bpa, up 127.6 last year. TheBA Grain Exchange maintains 28 MMT est, the same as USDA.  Argentina and Ukraine corn is now cheaper than it was recently, within $2-3 per MT of what our US Gulf corn costs.  Monday’s Crop Ratings are expected to be within 1 point from last week’s 75% G/E and compares to 68% last year.

BEANS     

DOWN 8

We bounced off the lows with good weather BIGGER yields expected. Pro Farmer’s tour has the MN pod count at a 1,107 vs. 1,119 last year vs a three year average of 1,006.  Their national yield/production est of 49.3bpa with IL, IA, and NE all over 58bpa. Considering the tour has underestimated the national yield 12 of the last 14 years, a 50bpa yield seems likely. Weather the past two days HAS been favorable for widespread harvest getting started for the Delta region. The forecast has some chance for rain this weekend.  Crop Ratings on Mon are  expected to be steady to vs 72% last week and 63% last year.  Keep your eye on the tropical storms in the S and their potential to affect Delta harvest.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 17

Ouch!  Today marked a NEW life of contract low that was supposedly pressure from our Spring wheat harvest.  Egypt is expected to buy wheat from Russia, Romania, or Ukraine.