COMMENTARY 8/25/16

The Central US is in transition from now until we get into Sep. Most areas should be warmer for the next 10 days, with above normal rain expected.  The highest accum totals are in the N this weekend and next week with 1.25” to 2.50” most likely for E NE, IA and W IL.   A hurricane is brewing in the SW and should make its way stateside next week.  All eyes will be watching which way it turns as it nears FL as if it comes up the Miss it could be a significant impact on harvest by producing heavy rain for the Delta/Corn Belt.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 12.5′ and forecast 16.4by 8/30.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 4   NEW ~ DOWN 4

Lower as harvest approaches and no adverse weather concerns.  The Pro Farmer tour is still leaning towards…BIG CROPS.  IL is est at 193.5 bpa vs the USDA at 200bpa and last year’s tour estimate of 171.6.  In W IA, they came up with a yield of 187.7 vs USDA at 187 bpa and 179.5 last year’s tour est.  The tour, wrapping up, is finishing up on IA and MN with their  final production est after the CBOT closes on Fri.  Thursday’s Old Crop Export Sales were puny at 2.8 (a low for the yr) vs expectations of just 4-10 mill bu.  New Crop were another story at whopping 41.7 vs expectations of 31 – 39.

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  75% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  84% G/E THIS WEEK, 84% LAST WEEK

US DOUGH: 85% THIS WEEK,  73 % LAST WEEK, 81% LAST YEAR, and 76% AVG

IL DOUGH:  89% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and 88% AVG

US DENT: 40% THIS WEEK,  21 % LAST WEEK, 34% LAST YEAR, and 35% AVG

IL DENT:  47% THIS WEEK,  25 % LAST WEEK,  50% LAST YEAR, and 50 % AVG

BEANS     

DOWN 30

Continued thoughts of RECORD YIELDS pressed futures lower.   Pro Farmer’s IL pod count was 1,318 vs. 1,190 last year. Thursday’s Export Sales were puny at 4.2 mill bu of the expected 2-7 Old crop.  New Crop was hearty at 71.3, up noticeably from last week’s 58.7 and well above expectations of 40-48 mill bu.

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 72% G/E THIS WEEK,   72% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 79% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US SETTING PODS: 89% THIS WEEK,  80 % LAST WEEK, 85% LAST YEAR and 85% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 89%  THIS WEEK, 81 % LAST WEEK, 86 % LAST YEAR, and 89 % AVG

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 3

Ground lower, although not due to any particular negative item. Export Sales were just 14 mill bu vs expectations of  15-22.

 Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  65% THIS WEEK, 48% LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK, 100% LAST WEEK, 100% LAST YEAR, and 100% AVG