COMMENTARY 8/25/15

It’s time to get those old bu’s on DP priced before Aug 31st!  ~JUST 4 DAYS LEFT!!

Cool weather continues into late week then Sat starts a warming trend, continuing for at least a week as an upper-level high expands.  Despite warming, low humidity should keep most areas drier, to drier than normal for the next 10 days, though there could be a spot shower especially in the Central Plains and W Corn Belt.  Some rain would be welcomed to the East.  Some 70% of US corn/bean production has received at least 3” of rain over the last 30 days.

St Louis river level LOWER at +12.0 and forecast  to be 8.7 by  8/30  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

CORN

DOWN 3   

Equities rebounded but gains were capped by the dollar’s strength. A Central IL crop tour concluded with yields off 17% from last year’s record crop, but still 10 bpa above the 5-year average.  Cordonnier maintains his yield estimate at 165 bpa and crop area is 300,000 acres too high, which would put the crop at 13.33 bbu, about 350 million below the USDA’s.  SocGen is unchanged on their U.S. corn yield at 164.2 bpa  (USDA: 168.8) and notes disappointing early yields in the south.  The EU’s yield monitoring unit expects a 21% reduction in corn yields this year.  Their latest estimate at 6.4 MMT is down from 6.71 in July and results from hot, dry weather in France, Germany, Italy and Poland.  Argentina has 48 mbu of corn exports pending, down from 51 last week (vs 46 a year ago) and will offer subsidized loans to corn producers at a maximum interest rate of 6% to help thwart an expected 20% reduction of output.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 38% (27% LW), Bearish 29% (46% LW), Neutral 33% (27% LW)  

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 69% G/E , 70% LW  32% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 56% G/E 56% LW

US DOUGH:   85% TW,  71 % LW, 81% LY, and 81% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH:  91% TW, 84% LW, 92% LY, and 92% AVG

US DENT:   39% TW,  21 % LW, 33% LY, and 43% AVG.  The State of IL DENT:  55% TW, 38% LW, 46% LY, and 58% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 4      **Now using Nov (X) Futures! 

Yesterday’s crop ratings were disappointing, Wall Street stocks rebounded, and China loosened credit.   Another 210 K MT sold to Unknown for delivery in 15/16!  Cordonnier raised his US bean yield 2 bpa to 46.0 and credits last week’s rains for the increase.  His bias is the USDA is ½ million to high on its acreage estimate and expects the crop at 3.81 bbu, 106 mbu below the USDA.  Societe Generale raised their yield estimate a smidgen to 46.3 bpa (USDA  46.9) noting that conditions need to STAY favorable for the remainder of the growing season.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 15% (14%), Bearish 70% (50%), Neutral 12% (33%)

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 63% G/E  and 63% LW  70% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 52% G/E, 50% G/E LW ~ up 2%

US BLOOMING:  96% TW, 93%LW, 99% LY, and 98% AVG.  The State of IL BLOOMING: 96% TW, 94% LW, 99% LY, and 98% AVG.

US POD SETTING:  87% TW, 79%LW, 89% LY, and 88% AVG.  The State of IL POD SETTING: 88% TW, 81%LW, 93% LY, and 91% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 8    

Weaker as dollar rebounded.  GET YOUR OLD CROP WHEAT HAULED BEFORE SEP 1st.  Continuing to wait may result in waiting much, much, MUCH longer than you anticipate. 

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 24% (9% LW), Bearish 48% (68% LW), Neutral 29% (23% LW)

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

Spring Wheat Harvested: 75% TW, 53% LW, 26% LY, 47% AVG.