COMMENTARY 8/25/14

Overnight rain amounts included ½” to 1 ½” for W MN, and IA, as well as N IL, IN, and W OH.  The forecast is calling for normal to above average precipitation for the next week. Multiple rounds of heavy rain will impact the Central/Southern Plains and Corn Belt as energy systems move along a cool front.  The weather in the north and south should be noticeably drier, aiding harvesting in the Delta and spring wheat drying in the northern Plains.  However, there is a moderate chance for rain in these areas from Saturday-Sunday forward as the central U.S. pattern remains conducive to more rain events.

St Louis river levels STEADY at +8.3 ft  and forecast to be 9.3 by 8/30.

CORN                      

DOWN 6

FUND selling.  Good rain over the weekend and decent weather this week took its toll today.  Export Inspections were strong at 43.0 vs expectations of 32-38.  The big buyers were Japan, Mexico, and South Korea.  Milo too was very impressive at 9.4.   The BA Exchange expects 10% drop in corn area this year as Argentine producers face low cash prices and rising input costs, thusly holding their current crop estimate steady at 25% MMT.  An Argentine default could lead to as much as a 25% drop in corn acres as access to financing becomes difficult—Bloomberg.  (The USDA, had the same area UP 7.4% in the August World Ag Production Report.)

The Pro Farmer results are all in!  The U.S. CORN YIELD is 169.3 BPA vs the USDA at 167.4 and the SIZE of the crop is 14.093 vs the USDA at 14.032 bbu.  Also according to Pro Farmer, the producer is 27% sold.  The 5 yr S/O/N average though 12/13  is 31%.  Pro Farmer’s opinion of the IA corn yield is 178.8, which is BELOW the USDA’s at 185. Their MN corn yield is 170.8, DOWN from last year’s 181.1.

The Crop Progress report increased 1 showing corn at 73% G/E this week, 72% LW, 59%LY. The State of IL  increased 2 at 82% G/E vs 80% LW.  US Dented is 35% TW, 22% LW, 21% LY and 43% Avg.  The IL dented 48% TW 34% LW 27%  53% AVG.   US DOUGH STAGE was 83% TW, 70% LW, 67% LY, and 78% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH was 93% TW, 86% LW, 85% LY, and 87% AVG.

 

BEANS    

DOWN 13   

Fund selling.  The market struggles to source all the beans it needs to get to New Crop. Excellent Export Inspections at 5.3 vs expectations of 1 – 4 mill.  The big buyers were  Mexico 2.9 mill, Other Asia 600 K, and Taiwan 700 K.  Soybean meal demand is hot from excellent crush margins, Argentine farmer selling uncertainty, prices are and have been on the decline, and India’s smaller bean crop (USDA would disagree) will reduce Asian local availability.

The Pro Farmer results are all in!      U.S. BEAN YIELD  45.35 BPA vs the USDA at 45.4  and the SIZE of the crop is 3.812 vs the USDA at 3.816 bbu.

US CROP CONDITIONS decreased 1% at 70 % G/E, 71% LW, and 58% LY.  The State of IL was 78% G/E THIS WEEK and 78%LW. US POD SETTING 90% TW, 83% LW, 82% LY, and 89% AVG.  IL POD SETTING was 94% TW, 89%  LW, 82% LY, and 88% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 9

Fund selling.  French wheat is 97% harvested, 4 points ahead of LY and up 1 for the week.   France is the EU’s largest wheat producer and much Black Sea region competition is seen.  French wheat harvest nears completion at 95% finished and 70% G/E.  The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised Argentine wheat area 3% to 4.36 million hectares.

Export Inspections healthy and hearty at 20.5 mbu vs expectations of 16-20. Big ger lots of 1.9 mill to Japan and 100 K to China. By class,  HRS, 4.8; SW, 2.8; HRW, 6.9;  SRW, 5.3 and 700 K durum

Be prepared to carry lower quality wheat through fall harvest an into NEXT year’s wheat.  The market is well armed to pay you for your troubles.

US Spring Wheat conditions are 66% G/E THIS WEEK,  68% LW, and 67% LY.  US Spring Wheat Harvested 27% THIS WEEK, 17% LW, 39% LY, and 49% AVG.

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.