COMMENTARY 8/24/2016

The Central US will be a transitional zone as we get into Sep. Most areas should be warmer for the first 10 days, with above normal rain expected.  The highest accum totals are in the N this weekend and next week with 1.25” to 2.50” most likely for E NE, IA and W IL.   A hurricane may blow in near FL early next week.  There is a low chance that it makes its way to the Gulf, eventually producing heavy rain for the Delta/Corn Belt.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 12.6′ and forecast 14.5by 8/27.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 1   NEW ~ DOWN 1

Persistently higher crop ratings and the perception of a mostly good finish to the growing season weighs on the market. The USDA announced a 101,600 MT sale to Unknown for 16/17 deliv.  The Pro Farmer Tour is making its way through IN, showing yields of 173.4 bpa, up from 142.9 last year and vs the USDA at 187 and 150 last year.  NE’s yield is est at 158.6 bpa, down from last year’s 165.1 and vs the USDA ‘s at 187 and 185 last year.  Can’t WAIT for them to get into N IL!

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  75% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  84% G/E THIS WEEK, 84% LAST WEEK

US DOUGH: 85% THIS WEEK,  73 % LAST WEEK, 81% LAST YEAR, and 76% AVG

IL DOUGH:  89% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and 88% AVG

US DENT: 40% THIS WEEK,  21 % LAST WEEK, 34% LAST YEAR, and 35% AVG

IL DENT:  47% THIS WEEK,  25 % LAST WEEK,  50% LAST YEAR, and 50 % AVG

BEANS     

DOWN 8

Some drought!  Ideas of a good (and possibly spectacular) finish to the growing season is putting pressure on prices. From recent deluge of rain a week ago, the LA Farm Bureau says up to 1 million acres of soybeans could be adversely affected by recent flooding.  Bean crush in Brazil’s State of Mato Grosso totals 26 mill bu for July, a 2 year low for the month due to reduced bean availability, declining meal demand, and poor margins are all take their toll.

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 72% G/E THIS WEEK,   72% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 79% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US SETTING PODS: 89% THIS WEEK,  80 % LAST WEEK, 85% LAST YEAR and 85% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 89%  THIS WEEK, 81 % LAST WEEK, 86 % LAST YEAR, and 89 % AVG

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 4

Choppy as we get into the later stages of spring wheat harvest.  Although this year’s Russia’s 72 MMT crop far exceeds 14/15’s 59 MMT crop, their Aug exports are expected to only be 3.2 MMT, ( below Aug 14’s record total of 4.2). Producers have sold mostly lower quality wheat.

 Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  65% THIS WEEK, 48% LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK, 100% LAST WEEK, 100% LAST YEAR, and 100% AVG