COMMENTARY 8/23/16

The Central US will be a transitional zone as we get into Sep. Most areas should be warmer for the first 10 days, with above normal rain expected.  The highest accum totals are in the N this weekend and next week with 1.25” to 2.50” most likely for E NE, IA and W IL.

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 12.6′ and forecast 13.5by 8/26.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 5   NEW ~ DOWN 5

Decent crop ratings yest, non threatening weather and slightly disappointing tour results from Pro Farmer. Very early MO yields not impressive.  OH shows yields at 149 bpa, up from 148.4 last year and vs USDA at 163 and 153 last year.  The SD yield is at 149.8, down 10% from last year’s tour average of 165.9 and vs USDA at 147 and 159 last year.  Cordonnier maintains his yield est at 173 bpa noting lighter ear weights.  Flood damage in LA is est at $46 Billion beans, $10 million corn, rice$33 million, and sugarcane $3 million.  This will increase demand for good quality beans.

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  75% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  84% G/E THIS WEEK, 84% LAST WEEK

US DOUGH: 85% THIS WEEK,  73 % LAST WEEK, 81% LAST YEAR, and 76% AVG

IL DOUGH:  89% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and 88% AVG

US DENT: 40% THIS WEEK,  21 % LAST WEEK, 34% LAST YEAR, and 35% AVG

IL DENT:  47% THIS WEEK,  25 % LAST WEEK,  50% LAST YEAR, and 50 % AVG

BEANS     

DOWN 2

Our weather forecast will aid yield potential, some traders noting 94′ had very similar growing conditions and saw a 10% Aug/Nov increase in yield est. Ratings yesterday held steady at 72%.    The bean pod count down 8%.  Cordonnier holds his yield est at 48.9 bpa with an upward bias on Aug moisture potential.  China trading giant Cofco said to be on the verge of assuming full ownership of Nidera.

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 72% G/E THIS WEEK,   72% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 79% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US SETTING PODS: 89% THIS WEEK,  80 % LAST WEEK, 85% LAST YEAR and 85% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 89%  THIS WEEK, 81 % LAST WEEK, 86 % LAST YEAR, and 89 % AVG

WHEAT          

DOWN 8

Larger wheat exports forecast from Romania. More Black Sea wheat as Ukr Agro Consult increases the Russian estimate 13%.  Agro also increased the output of Ukraine from 24.8 to 26.0.  Got wheat?

 Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  65% THIS WEEK, 48% LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK, 100% LAST WEEK, 100% LAST YEAR, and 100% AVG