COMMENTARY 8/23/17

Cool and dry for the SE half of the Corn Belt through early next week.  Scattered storms for the NW half of the Plains.  That tropical storm we mentioned recently now has a name.  Harvey is currently a weak, developing tropical storm and is expected to turn into a hurricane before it hits the E coast of TX in the next two days and through the weekend.  The longer the storm lingers over warm water, the more damaging rain/flooding impact it will have when it reaches land!  Rain totals of 5 – 10″ are possible with some areas receiving as much as 20″ if the storm continues at its current speed of 35 mph.  Though harvest in TX is wrapping up (70-75% complete), in LA and MIS, harvest fields are at high risk for large amounts of rain, flooding, and high winds.  KEEP YOUR EYES PEELED.

 

CORN

DOWN 4

Fund selling.  Cool temps, initial crop tours initially showing better yields in some area, and Tropical Storm Harvey weakens nearby basis ahead of threatening Delta harvest.  The ProFarmer tour continues and NE, IN, and OH look to be coming in better than some trade guesses.  The SD yields look below avg, but stronger than what locals have est.   Folks involved in the tours are struggling to get a good est on the crop as they contend with variable field conditions and recent rains in parts of the IA and IL. NE yields hinted to be 165 vs158.6 last year.  IN yileds 171 vs 173 last year. Taiwan bought 130 KMT corn today from Brazil.  Export Sales are expected to be only 2 – 10 mill bu Thurs.

 

BEANS

UP 1

A mixed bag.  Tropical Storm Harvey could cause delays in Delta harvest, cause flooding  AND cause quality damage. China cancelled 641 KMT of beans that was slated for delivery in 16/17 today.  Unknown bought 11.2 KMT of 16/17 beans and 284 K for shipment in 17/18.  The Commerce Dept. announced a duty on subsidized biodiesel imports from Arg and Indonesia (a countervailing effort).  This will give retroactive duty dating back to 5/17 and levies a much higher than expected cash requirement on imports. Final determinations are expected be made by the ITC later this fall or early in 2018.  Export Sales are expected to be 9 – 17 mill.

 

WHEAT

UP 1

Mixed.  HRW weaker and HRS/SRW slightly firmer. Export Sales tomorrow are expected to be between 11 – 22 mill bu.