COMMENTARY 8/22/17

More rains helped break the dry pattern in IA, Cent IL, N MO, and portions of IN, MN, MO, and KS last night.  Both the 6-10 and 10-14 day forecast are BELOW normal temps and normal precip, so we won’t be helping speed harvest along any time soon.   Also adding to the complexity is improved chances for a tropical storm or weak hurricane to develop and affect the W Gulf this weekend.  Where it hits, to what extent, and which direction the moisture drifts after it makes landfall will determine if harvest gets delayed in the Delta and then the S third of the Belt next week.

 

CORN

DOWN 3

Cool temps and more showers ease dryness.  Cordonnier increased his yield est 1.5 bpa to 165.0 which is neutral, but put emphasis on the wide variability of stress/dryness in IA, IL, IN and OH.  Most crop tours are expected to to show results of 10-14% lower yields compared to last year.  More tour rumors will be out as we move through the week!  In SA, Celeres est’s Brazil’s safrinha (double crop)sales at down from 68% from this time last year , at only 40%.  Producers there are still struggling with a big crop, lack of space, and low prices. Cheap cash price too is worsened by higher trucking fees as well.

 

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC DOUGH:   76%TW,  61 % LW, 83% LY, and 77% AVG

IL YC DOUGH   91% TW, 77% LW, 88% LY, and 87% AVG

US YC DENT:   29%TW,  16 % LW, 37% LY, and 35% AVG

IL YC DENT:   41% TW, 26% LW, 44% LY, and 46% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  62% G/E,  62% LW, and 75% LY  ~NO CHANGE!

IL CONDITIONS: 54% G/E, 62% LW  an 8% DECREASE!

BEANS

UP 1

Quiet and looking for direction.  Basis values have soared as the market tries to ration what’s left of the old crop until new crop bu’s get into the pipeline. Rain crossing major bean states and Delta don’t favor harvest getting started so more basis improvement may be seen!  Tropical Storm Harvey could cause delays in S harvest AND quality damage which could force exporters to source good beans from us good Northern folk.

Crop Progress:

US YSB BLOOMING: 97% TW,  94% LW, 98% LY, and 97% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    100% TW, 97% LW, 99% LY, and 97% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   87%TW,  79% LW,  88% LY, and 85% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   92% TW,  83% LW, 88 LY, and 87% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  60% G/E 59% LW, and 72% LY a 1% INCREASE!

IL CONDITIONS: 60% G/E, 63% LW a 3% DECREASE!

WHEAT

DOWN 7

Chicago ended lower again!  MN wheat pulled the other wheat classes lower asHRS wheat harvest is progressing and yields are improving in the second half of the crop.

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    34 G/E% TW, 33% LW, 66% LY   a 1% INCREASE!

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:    58% TW, 48% LW, 63% LY, and 51% AVG