COMMENTARY 8/22/16

MILD as the upper level high in the South is likely to keep the central.  The location of the high  should create some pop up showers from the Plains, up into the Corn Belt.  The spring wheat area in the N Plains and beans in the Delta should stay relatively dry.

St Louis river level STEADY ~ at 12.3′ and forecast 12.6by 8/25.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 1   NEW ~ DOWN 1

Early Pro Farmer Tour comments are mixed.  Export Inspections were near the upper end at 49.2 vs expectations of 43-51 mill bu  with 58.5 per week needed. Japan is mighty hungry, taking 16.5 million of that total.  Africa took 5.2 and Other W Hemispheres were aggressive at 12.1 mill bu.

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  75% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  84% G/E THIS WEEK, 84% LAST WEEK

US DOUGH: 85% THIS WEEK,  73 % LAST WEEK, 81% LAST YEAR, and 76% AVG

IL DOUGH:  89% THIS WEEK,  79 % LAST WEEK,  89% LAST YEAR, and 88% AVG

US DENT: 40% THIS WEEK,  21 % LAST WEEK, 34% LAST YEAR, and 35% AVG

IL DENT:  47% THIS WEEK,  25 % LAST WEEK,  50% LAST YEAR, and 50 % AVG

BEANS     

UP 11

Chart buying, good exports, and yet another sale of 120 K MT of 16/17 sold to Unknown.  We are feeling the rewards of SA crop losses as export business comes to the US. Monday’s Export Inspections were solid at 35.3 vs expectations of 29-39. EU took 10.5 mill bu and China, 15.2. The USDA should be raising its forecast upwards in Sep. Today’s Crop Ratings were expected to be steady at 72% (9 higher than last year).  See Actual below.

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 72% G/E THIS WEEK,   72% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 79% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US SETTING PODS: 89% THIS WEEK,  80 % LAST WEEK, 85% LAST YEAR and 85% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 89%  THIS WEEK, 81 % LAST WEEK, 86 % LAST YEAR, and 89 % AVG

WHEAT          

DOWN 11

Softer, but no good reason for pressure. There was some business transacted with Saudi Arabia, but was for lower classes of wheat.

 Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  65% THIS WEEK, 48% LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK, 100% LAST WEEK, 100% LAST YEAR, and 100% AVG