COMMENTARY 8/22/14 **NEW DOUGLAS SRW ~ SAME PRICE AS THE RIVER!!**

The last 24 hours brought ½ to 1 ½” to MN, WI, NE IA the N 1/3rd of IL and across N IN as well as SW OH. The forecast is avg to above average precip through next Wed, then turning dry.  The warmest period of the 2014 growing season breaks Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.  The central and northern Plains chances of rain are better through Sunday, and the Corn Belt Mon thru Wed.  Upcoming rains are a significant divergence compared to normal and the last three years when the weather turns drier during August.

Too much new machinery out there??  John Deere to furlough 460 Waterloo, IA plant employees indefinitely.   This comes on the heels of a 600 reduction at East Moline, Moline, Ankeny, IA and  Coffeyville, KS just last week.

St Louis river levels EASING at +9.7 ft  and forecast to be 7.3 by 8/27.

CORN                      

UP 3

The Pro Farmer results are all in!  The U.S. CORN YIELD is 169.3 BPA vs the USDA at 167.4 and the SIZE of the crop is 14.093 vs the USDA at 14.032 bbu.  Also according to Pro Farmer, the producer is 27% sold.  The 5 yr S/O/N average though 12/13  is 31%.  Pro Farmer’s opinion of the IA corn yield is 178.8, which is BELOW the USDA’s at 185. Their MN corn yield is 170.8, DOWN from last year’s 181.1.  The Philippines are considering Black Sea or French feed wheat in rations this year. (means less demand for US Corn)

Thursday’s Export Sales were 3.9 mbu old crop and 28.3 for new crop, in line with expectations. 300 K bu 13/14 milo, 4.2 new crop.  Big buyers were  Colombia, Mexico, Egypt and S Korea.  BA Exchange expects 10% decline in this fall’s Argentine corn acres and keeps current crop at 25 MMT.   An Argentine default could lead to as much as a 25% drop in corn acres as access to financing becomes difficult—Bloomberg.  The USDA, had the same area UP 7.4% in the August World Agricultural Production report.

Last week, the USDA didn’t believe the trade’s 170 bpa average yield estimate.  They added just 2.1 bushels to the avg yield taking it from 167.4  to 167.4.  This adjustment, with no change in harvested area boosted production 172 mbu to 14.03 billion (vs avg trade guess of 14.252bill). Additional demand of 100 million combined with a 65 mbu smaller beginning stocks estimate left 14/15 C/O changed very little at 1.808 billion.

The Crop Progress report decreased 1 showing corn at 72% G/E this week 73% LW, 61%LY. The State of IL  decreased 2 at 80% G/E vs 82% LW.  US Dented is 22% TW, 11% LW, 10% LY and 27% Avg.  The IL dented 34% TW 17% LW 13%  38% AVG.   US DOUGH STAGE was 70% TW, 54% LW, 49% LY, and 63% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH was 86% TW, 77% LW, 67% LY, and 76% AVG.

 

BEANS    

UP 4   

The Pro Farmer results are all in!      U.S. BEAN YIELD  45.35 BPA vs the USDA at 45.4  and the SIZE of the crop is 3.812 vs the USDA at 3.816 bbu.  Bean crushers are trying to find old crop beans to crush and it’s not easy!  Soybean meal demand is hot from excellent crush margins, Argentine farmer selling uncertainty, prices are and have been on the decline, and India’s smaller bean crop (USDA would disagree) will reduce Asian local availability.  Thursday’s Export Sales were  negative 3.3 mbu for 13/14 and a hefty 52.2 sold for NEW crop.  China was the big NEW CROP buyer along with The EU, Vietnam, Mexico, and Egypt.

Last week, the USDA added  20 million to old crop exports but were able to keep old crop ending stocks at a workable 140 million by “finding” another 25 million bu!  The new crop #’s look pretty reasonable with the avg yield at 45.4 . The  production value of 3.816 billion fell just 7 million short of the avg trade guess of 3.823.  From this, we must conclude that all the DDGs rejected by the Chinese apparently have had little impact on either domestic corn or soybean meal demand.

US CROP CONDITIONS increased 1% at 10 % G/E, 70% LW, and 62%LY. The State of IL was 78% G/E THIS WEEK and 78%LW.  US BLOOMING was 95% THIS WEEK, 92% LW, 91% LY, and 95% AVG.  BLOOMING for the State of IL was 96% THIS WEEK, 94% LW, 93% LY, and 95% AVG.  US POD SETTING 83% TW, 72% LW, 70% LY, and 79% AVG.  IL POD SETTING was 89% TW, 79%  LW, 74% LY, and 79% AVG

 

WHEAT          

UP 6

Higher yet on France’s imports of milling quality wheat so early in the season.  France has reportedly imported 27.5 K of Lithuanian milling wheat with 3 K MT of UK milling wheat coming into Dunkirk earlier this week and another 4,400 K MT scheduled to arrive in the port of Rouen yesterday— France is The EU’s largest wheat producer Ample Black Sea region competition seen. (See comment above in corn).  French wheat harvest nears completion at 95% finished and 70% G/E.  The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised Argentine wheat area 3% to 4.36 million hectares.

Last week,  the USDA’s 8.0 MMT increase in FSU wheat production led by a 6.0 increase in Russia.  Exports from the FSU were increased 3.0 MMT (all from Russia).  That was offset by a 3.0 MMT reduction in exports from the EU due to quality concerns following a rain-plagued harvest.  U.S. exports were increased 25mbu but the annual forecast of 925 million is still down 21% from a year ago.  World ending stocks of 193.0 MMT are ample and up 5% from a year ago.

Be prepared to carry lower quality wheat through fall harvest an into NEXT year’s wheat.  The market is well armed to pay you for your troubles.

US Spring Wheat conditions are 68% G/E, 70LW, and 66% LY.

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.