COMMENTARY 8/2/18

The most RECENT forecast is now cooler and wetter for next week.  The heat is now supposed to be short lived AND since when is a high of 93 deg considered HOT?! Another cool front comes down from Canada again mid-week.  Scattered showers are in the plans for the Corn Belt and the Delta.  Accums are expected to range from 3/4″ to 1.5” for the most part.

CORN

UP 2

Supported and taking clues from wheat as the European crop shrinks. Old crop Export Sales were a tad under the low end at 11.5 mill vs expectations of 12 -24.  New crop, though, made up for it by being ABOVE at 38.8 vs expectations of 16-31.  Mexico MAY be trying to chum up business with Arg, but they still bought 2 mill old and 11 mill from the US!  New crop values are once AGAIN in the area where smart folks are making significant sales.  No matter what the market does, you’ll NEVER GO WRONG locking in profit.  Don’t wait until the bus leaves the station.  There are a LOT of busses out there.  They don’t all take you to profit!

 

BEANS              

DOWN 4

More demand concerns via China.  Export Sales were negative 3.4 vs expectations of 6-18 and negative 10.2 mill needed per week.  Our “fair trade friends”, China, cancelled 4.4 mill and unknown cancelled 11.6 mill. The unknown smells like China too(especially since the rest of the world needs beans).  Meal Sales were decent at 79k vs expectations of 50-250.  The next round of enhanced US tariff on China are slated to begin Sep 1, so China does have another month to consider negotiating.  This weather is good for growing beans!  One private from IA has our US crop at 51.5 bpa with a 4.574 bill bu crop.  This compares with the most recent USDA of 48.5 and 4.31 bill.  If weather continues unthreatening AND China continues to give our beans the cold shoulder, a 1 BILL bu crop is looking like a REAL possibility.

 

 

WHEAT

UP 2

The European market was sharply higher again today!  Quite a rally unfolded with wheat up the limit on the high (35 cents) before relaxing.  Now the Ukraine is considering NOT exporting any wheat, according to Bloomberg.  With SO much negative growing conditions, it seems justified that Export Sales were the strong commodity this am at 14.1 vs expectations of 7-17 mill bu. and 16.1 mill needed per week.  New crop wheat for NEXT July 19 is a REAL hot tamale!!  How many times in your lifetime have you had the opportunity to sell $6.00 wheat??