COMMENTARY 8/21/17

Over the weekend, some pretty widespread rain broke the dryness for much of IA with a few storms in IN and the Dakotas. Now that the eclipse is in the media’s rear view mirror, a strong cool front should drop temps into Tue with gradual warming as the week wears on.  Additional rain chances increase tomorrow.  So, cool/damp is in our immediate future.

 

CORN

DOWN 3

The weather outlook after weekend rains is non-threatening.  Mon’s Export Inspections were a pinch under thoughts at 27.2 vs expectaions of 30 – 37 mill bu.  A surprisingly large 8.4 mill went to Japan and Mexico took 9.4 mill. With just two weeks left the 16/17 corn exports could/should exceed the 2.225 bill bu Usda forecast by about 50 million!  Crop ratings this afternoon were expected to be unchanged to 1 higher from last Mon which held true for the entire Belt, but IL DROPPED 8% to just 54% complete!  Gonna be seing LOTS of crop tour info now!  A Farm Journal tour est’s SD’s yield at 140.2 vs last year’s 149.8 bpa.  IAG est’s the US yield at 165.9 after visiting fields LAST week.

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC DOUGH:   76%TW,  61 % LW, 83% LY, and 77% AVG

IL YC DOUGH   91% TW, 77% LW, 88% LY, and 87% AVG

US YC DENT:   29%TW,  16 % LW, 37% LY, and 35% AVG

IL YC DENT:   41% TW, 26% LW, 44% LY, and 46% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  62% G/E,  62% LW, and 75% LY  ~NO CHANGE!

IL CONDITIONS: 54% G/E, 62% LW  an 8% DECREASE!

BEANS

DOWN 1

Export demand helped limit softness today due weekend rain in IA.  Export Sales were above thoughts at 24.4 vs expectations of 17 – 24 mill bu and compares to 34.8 last year.  There was a 463KMT sale announced to unknown this am for 17/18 deliv and 198KMT sold to China.  Today’s Crop Ratings were mixed, with US conditions being slightly better, but good ol IL’s G/E is 3% lower.  Former White House Chief Strategist Bannon recently claimed that the US and China are at economic war and that we should be manically focused on that.  Hopefully, China doesn’t take its 1.3 bill bu’s worth of demand (this year) and run off elsewhere to buy them in the direct near future.  Crop Tour?  Farm Journal has SD pod count now 7% smaller than last year and IAG says the USDA’s 48.4 bu US bean yield is likely.  In SA, Safras is forecasting Brazil’s 17/18 bean exports to rise 24% to 64.5 MMT !!

Crop Progress:

US YSB BLOOMING: 97% TW,  94% LW, 98% LY, and 97% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    100% TW, 97% LW, 99% LY, and 97% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   87%TW,  79% LW,  88% LY, and 85% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   92% TW,  83% LW, 88 LY, and 87% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  60% G/E 59% LW, and 72% LY a 1% INCREASE!

IL CONDITIONS: 60% G/E, 63% LW a 3% DECREASE!

WHEAT

DOWN 6

Weaker yet despite Export Inspections were in range at 21.4 mill bu vs expectations of 18 – 23 mill.  Spring ratings improved a touch (see below).  Egypt has banned a cargo of wheat from Romania for being contaminated with poppy seeds – of ALL things!

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    34 G/E% TW, 33% LW, 66% LY   a 1% INCREASE!

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:    58% TW, 48% LW, 63% LY, and 51% AVG