COMMENTARY 8/21/15

It’s time to get those old bu’s on DP priced before Aug 31st!  ~JUST 1 WEEK LEFT!!

 GRRRREAT growing conditions for late planted beans!  Approx 92% of US corn and 90% of US bean production has received at least 2.00″ of rain over the last 30 days!!  Cooler than normal temps are expected through Tues.  Then, a warmer pattern follows.  A few spot showers are expected over the weekend and next week forward, but the SE half of the Belt should be rain free for the next seven days leaving topsoil and subsoil moisture higher than in most years.

St Louis river level STEADY at +10.3 and forecast  to be 11.3 by  8/26  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

CORN

DOWN 6   

Great Aug weather for the row crops, CHEAP oil, and global economic worries pressured.  Talk this week continues around the Pro Farmer tour showing crops in the east much lower than the USDA.  This was expected by anyone in that region. The BA Exchange says the Argentine crop is now 93% harvested and  maintains their 26 MMT production forecast.  At least 1 South American vessel HAS made its way into the US East Coast as the export (demand) market seems to be getting thin prior to our harvest.  Rabobank has lowered its Q3 price forecast from $3.90 to $3.70, and raised their US corn yield from 163 to 165.  It also believes excessive heat in the EU could trim their corn crop to 60 MMT, 2.3 MMT below the current USDA forecast.  The Pro Farmer Tour finds IL yields at 171.6 vs the USDA’s  Aug at 172 bpa, down from 197 last year (USDA: 200 bpa).

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 38% (27% LW), Bearish 29% (46% LW), Neutral 33% (27% LW)  

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 69% G/E , 70% LW  72% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 56% G/E 56% LW

US DOUGH:   71% TW,  50 % LW, 68% LY, and 66% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH:  84% TW, 67% LW, 85% LY, and 82% AVG.

US DENT:   21% TW,  9 % LW, 20% LY, and 28% AVG.  The State of IL DENT:  38% TW, 17% LW, 32% LY, and 41% AVG.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 18      **Now using Nov (X) Futures! 

Fund sold another 9000 contracts today, plus China finance woes and general world demand concerns weighed heavy.  The Pro Farmer tour finding IL pod count down 8% from last year.  Rabobank lowers their  Q3 price forecast 40 cents to $9.50 and doesn’t buy into USDA’s 46.9 bpa yield estimate.  They believe that 45 bpa is more accurate.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 15% (14%), Bearish 70% (50%), Neutral 12% (33%)

 LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 63% G/E  and 63% LW  71% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 50% G/E, 50% G/E LW

US BLOOMING:  93% TW, 88%LW, 95% LY, and 95% AVG.  The State of IL BLOOMING: 94% TW, 89% LW, 96% LY, and 96% AVG.

US POD SETTING:  79% TW, 69%LW, 81% LY, and 79% AVG.  The State of IL POD SETTING: 81% TW, 70%LW, 88% LY, and 83% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 7    

Limited export demand anticipated for US feed grade wheat inventories.  GET YOUR OLD CROP WHEAT HAULED BEFORE SEP 1st.  Continuing to wait may result in waiting much, much, MUCH longer than you anticipate.   Stats Canada has the all  wheat production at 24.6, vs trade range was 24.6-26.9 with a 25.6 average and 27.1 in July.  This figure is 4.7 MMT below last year and 1.9 MMT below August USDA estimate.  UK wheat harvest is 40% complete, near average pace with yields running ahead of average.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 24% (9% LW), Bearish 48% (68% LW), Neutral 29% (23% LW)

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

Spring Wheat Condition: 70% G/E TW, 69%  G/E LW, 68% G/E LY

Spring Wheat Harvested: 53% TW, 28% LW, 15% LY, 31% AVG.